The bracket below is our college basketball model’s best prediction of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like at the end of the season. It is not a reflection of what the bracket would look like if the season ended today. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the season 10,000 times and makes a bracket from the median results of those simulations. With there being so much uncertainty right now, we aren’t listing probabilities at this point in the season.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- The winner of the first region listed plays the winner of the second in the Final Four.
- Automatic bids are marked with a single asterisk (*).
- If you want NIT Bracketology, we have it.
- For a full, top-to-bottom view of the field, check out our model’s Seed List.
- To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive.
- We’ve listed projected standby at-large bid replacement teams at the bottom of the page.
- How accurate is this? Here are our expectations.
Last updated Friday, March 5th
WEST
| 1. Gonzaga* |
| 16. Prairie View A&M*/Norfolk State* |
| 8. UConn |
| 9. St. Bonaventure* |
| 4. Texas |
| 13. Winthrop* |
| 5. Purdue |
| 12. Boise State/Syracuse |
| 3. Iowa |
| 14. Georgia State* |
| 6. Texas Tech |
| 11. North Carolina |
| 7. Oregon |
| 10. Colgate* |
| 2. Arkansas |
| 15. Siena* |
EAST
| 1. Alabama* |
| 16. Cleveland State*/Grand Canyon* |
| 8. Florida |
| 9. Loyola* |
| 4. BYU |
| 13. North Texas* |
| 5. Clemson |
| 12. SMU/Xavier |
| 3. Kansas |
| 14. Furman* |
| 6. San Diego State* |
| 11. Virginia Tech |
| 7. LSU |
| 10. Georgia Tech |
| 2. Illinois |
| 15. Cleveland State* |
MIDWEST
| 1. Michigan* |
| 16. Bryant* |
| 8. VCU |
| 9. Louisville |
| 4. Florida State* |
| 13. Belmont* |
| 5. Colorado |
| 12. Wichita State |
| 3. Villanova* |
| 14. Liberty* |
| 6. Virginia |
| 11. Rutgers |
| 7. Creighton |
| 10. Maryland |
| 2. West Virginia |
| 15. Vermont* |
SOUTH
| 1. Baylor* |
| 16. James Madison* |
| 8. Wisconsin |
| 9. UCLA |
| 4. USC* |
| 13. Toledo* |
| 5. Oklahoma State |
| 12. UC-Santa Barbara* |
| 3. Houston* |
| 14. Abilene Christian* |
| 6. Missouri |
| 11. Colorado State |
| 7. Tennessee |
| 10. Oklahoma |
| 2. Ohio State |
| 15. South Dakota State* |
STANDBY REPLACEMENT AT-LARGE TEAMS
| 1. Drake |
| 2. Memphis |
| 3. Saint Louis |
| 4. Utah State |