The bracket below is our college basketball model’s best prediction of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like at the end of the season. It is not a reflection of what the bracket would look like if the season ended today. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the season 10,000 times and makes a bracket from the median results of those simulations. With there being so much uncertainty right now, we aren’t listing probabilities at this point in the season.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- The winner of the first region listed plays the winner of the second in the Final Four.
- Automatic bids are marked with a single asterisk (*).
- If you want NIT Bracketology, we have it.
- For a full, top-to-bottom view of the field, check out our model’s Seed List.
- To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive.
- We’ve listed projected standby at-large bid replacement teams at the bottom of the page.
Last updated Tuesday, March 2nd
WEST
| 1. Gonzaga* |
| 16. Prairie View A&M*/Norfolk State* |
| 8. UCLA |
| 9. Oklahoma |
| 4. Oklahoma State |
| 13. Toledo* |
| 5. USC |
| 12. Wichita State/Drake |
| 3. Iowa |
| 14. Liberty* |
| 6. Florida |
| 11. Virginia Tech |
| 7. Texas Tech |
| 10. Boise State |
| 2. Houston* |
| 15. Georgia State* |
EAST
| 1. Alabama* |
| 16. Grand Canyon*/James Madison* |
| 8. Oregon |
| 9. VCU* |
| 4. BYU |
| 13. North Texas* |
| 5. Purdue |
| 12. Georgia Tech/SMU |
| 3. Kansas |
| 14. Wright State* |
| 6. Colorado* |
| 11. North Carolina |
| 7. Missouri |
| 10. Loyola* |
| 2. Ohio State |
| 15. South Dakota State* |
SOUTH
| 1. Baylor* |
| 16. Vermont* |
| 8. Louisville |
| 9. Maryland |
| 4. Villanova* |
| 13. Belmont* |
| 5. San Diego State* |
| 12. Colgate* |
| 3. Florida State* |
| 14. Abilene Christian* |
| 6. Creighton |
| 11. Colorado State |
| 7. Tennessee |
| 10. Rutgers |
| 2. Illinois |
| 15. Eastern Washington* |
MIDWEST
| 1. Michigan* |
| 16. Bryant* |
| 8. LSU |
| 9. St. Bonaventure |
| 4. Clemson |
| 13. Winthrop* |
| 5. Texas |
| 12. UC-Santa Barbara* |
| 3. Arkansas |
| 14. Furman* |
| 6. Virginia |
| 11. Xavier |
| 7. Wisconsin |
| 10. UConn |
| 2. West Virginia |
| 15. Siena* |
STANDBY REPLACEMENT AT-LARGE TEAMS
| 1. Seton Hall |
| 2. Western Kentucky |
| 3. Syracuse |
| 4. Saint Louis |