Archived: 2.19.21 NCAAT Bracketology

The bracket below is our college basketball model’s best prediction of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like at the end of the season. It is not a reflection of what the bracket would look like if the season ended today. If you want a full explanation of the model, here you go. The short version is that it simulates the season 10,000 times and makes a bracket from the median results of those simulations. With there being so much uncertainty right now, we aren’t listing probabilities at this point in the season, but we’ll have those at some point down the line.

If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.

  • The winner of the first region listed plays the winner of the second in the Final Four.
  • Automatic bids are marked with a single asterisk (*).
  • If you want NIT Bracketology, we have it.
  • Updates are currently happening weekly.
  • For a full, top-to-bottom view of the field, check out our model’s Seed List.
  • To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive.

Last updated Friday, February 19th

WEST

1. Gonzaga*
16. Prairie View A&M*/Norfolk State*
8. Loyola*
9. Oklahoma State
4. Oklahoma
13. Toledo*
5. Clemson
12. Minnesota/Xavier
3. Iowa*
14. Wright State*
6. BYU
11. Seton Hall
7. LSU
10. Colgate*
2. Virginia*
15. Liberty*

EAST

1. Ohio State
16. Vermont*
8. Wisconsin
9. St. Bonaventure
4. Villanova*
13. Marshall*
5. Kansas
12. Indiana/North Carolina
3. West Virginia
14. Furman*
6. Purdue
11. Colorado State
7. Virginia Tech
10. Oregon
2. Alabama*
15. South Dakota State*

MIDWEST

1. Michigan
16. Northeastern*
8. San Diego State*
9. Florida
4. Texas
13. Winthrop*
5. Arkansas
12. Saint Louis*
3. Houston*
14. Siena*
6. Missouri
11. Maryland
7. VCU
10. Drake
2. USC*
15. Grand Canyon*

SOUTH

1. Baylor*
16. Texas State*/Bryant*
8. Louisville
9. Colorado
4. Tennessee
13. UC-Santa Barbara*
5. Creighton
12. Belmont*
3. Florida State
14. Abilene Christian*
6. Texas Tech
11. Boise State
7. Rutgers
10. UCLA
2. Illinois
15. Eastern Washington*

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