The bracket below is our college basketball model’s best prediction of what the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like at the end of the season. It is not a reflection of what the bracket would look like if the season ended today. We’ll have an explanation of how our model works in the coming days, but the short version is that it simulates the season 1,000 times and makes the most likely single bracket from the results of those simulations. With there being so much uncertainty right now, we aren’t listing probabilities at this point in the season, but we’ll have those at some point down the line.
If you notice any irregularities or have questions of any sort, please contact me through the information available on our about page or on twitter: @joestunardi.
- The winner of the first region listed plays the winner of the second in the Final Four.
- Automatic bids are marked with a single asterisk (*).
- If you want NIT Bracketology, we have it.
- Updates are currently happening weekly.
- For a full, top-to-bottom view of the field, check out our model’s Weekly Seed List.
- To see how the model has processed changing data throughout the season, you can reference our archive.
Last updated Tuesday, January 5th
WEST
| 1. Gonzaga* |
| 16. Texas Southern*/Norfolk State* |
| 8. Oklahoma State |
| 9. Alabama |
| 4. Minnesota |
| 13. Marshall* |
| 5. Duke* |
| 12. Loyola* |
| 3. Kansas |
| 14. Abilene Christian* |
| 6. Saint Louis* |
| 11. North Carolina |
| 7. San Diego State* |
| 10. Stanford |
| 2. Illinois |
| 15. Hofstra* |
MIDWEST
| 1. Texas |
| 16. Eastern Washington* |
| 8. Colorado |
| 9. Seton Hall |
| 4. Creighton |
| 13. Belmont* |
| 5. Rutgers |
| 12. Winthrop* |
| 3. Tennessee* |
| 14. Georgia State* |
| 6. Ohio State |
| 11. VCU |
| 7. USC |
| 10. Syracuse |
| 2. Iowa* |
| 15. UC-Irvine* |
EAST
| 1. Villanova* |
| 16. Colgate* |
| 8. Florida State |
| 9. LSU |
| 4. Clemson |
| 13. South Dakota State* |
| 5. Missouri |
| 12. Oklahoma/North Carolina State |
| 3. West Virginia |
| 14. Wright State* |
| 6. Florida |
| 11. Drake/Xavier |
| 7. Texas Tech |
| 10. UConn |
| 2. Wisconsin |
| 15. New Mexico State* |
SOUTH
| 1. Baylor* |
| 16. Vermont*/Bryant* |
| 8. UCLA |
| 9. Virginia Tech |
| 4. Louisville |
| 13. Toledo* |
| 5. Oregon* |
| 12. Furman* |
| 3. Michigan |
| 14. Liberty* |
| 6. Virginia |
| 11. Purdue |
| 7. Indiana |
| 10. Arkansas |
| 2. Houston* |
| 15. Siena* |