1. Well, Rizzo striking out Freeman was fun.
That kind of night. And had it come after one win in the two days prior, that probably would’ve been enough. Unfortunately, it came after two straight losses, and after two straight before that, and two plus two makes four which makes last night the fifth straight loss. No sweeps yet, but not a great situation.
But to be clear: Rizzo striking out Freeman was fun. And as for the losing streak: What did we expect? A cobbled-together pitching staff and an inconsistent offense with potential is what we knew the Cubs had, and this is the cake you get with those ingredients. We can, and do, hope for an outcome on the high end of the possibilities. But stretches like this are probably still part of any reasonable expectation.
2. Kyle Hendricks’s struggles are baffling.
I do not know what’s going on with Kyle Hendricks. I don’t get the idea Kyle Hendricks knows what’s going on with Kyle Hendricks. Do I trust him to figure it out? Honestly, yes. Maybe that’s overly optimistic, but Hendricks has made it this far in his career—and I’m talking the long way, looking back to high school—by figuring out how to make things work. Am I concerned that his command won’t return? Of course. But if you had to objectively bet on whether Kyle Hendricks will get his command back, wouldn’t you bet that he will? In the meantime, it seems Hendricks is focusing on making sure he isn’t tipping his pitches, which seems like a good thing to do. The fact Hendricks has been fine against Milwaukee and terrible against Atlanta seems to support the theory that this is the problem. Atlanta has his tip figured out, Milwaukee doesn’t, command issues are yielding some long balls anyway which accounts for what struggles he has had against Milwaukee and Pittsburgh (also, that Pittsburgh start was cold cold).
In other words, hopefully stopping the tipping stops the bleeding, and Hendricks’s command starts coming back as he stops getting rocked to the degree where he can’t get in a groove. That’s the hope. Not the guarantee.
3. The lineup has changed.
We’ve already got a lineup for tonight’s game, so instead of talking actively about the offense, let’s talk about it in terms of what David Ross is trying to shake things up. Jake Marisnick is getting his third straight start today, all against righties. Ian Happ is on the bench for the second straight night, and Ross candidly said Happ isn’t the leadoff hitter anymore, at least for the time being. Matt Duffy’s getting his third straight start, with David Bote on the bench as Javy Báez returns to the lineup (please let his hamstring be good to go and please don’t let this be reckless and cause a bigger problem).
The nuts of this is that 1) at least for a couple nights, Ross is giving Happ a little space and giving Marisnick more of an opportunity; 2) the Cubs want to see if Duffy can perform in a platoon, which wouldn’t be all that surprising given his career wRC+ is a respectable 101; and 3) the Cubs are dissatisfied enough in general to be making moves on a day-to-day basis.
I will note that Happ and Bote have each seemingly been the the recipients of some bad batted-ball luck. Each has a much higher xwOBA than wOBA. For Happ, though, I believe the xwOBA’s been dropping recently, and there have been a few real head-scratchers of plate appearances. I don’t know how predictive xwOBA is. It’s possible it’s junk. But interesting to keep an eye on (also, Duffy has the highest xwOBA on the Cubs, so maybe they do like it and they just think Heyward’s defense is too valuable to give up and they want to rest Bryant’s arm, so they’re giving Marisnick AB’s instead of Bote).
***
Around the Division:
Everyone else lost, which is something I’d guess we’ll say a lot this year. The Brewers fell at home to the Marlins, 6-2. The Reds turned a 2-0 deficit into an 8-0 final in the eighth inning in Los Angeles. The Pirates lost to the Royals, 9-6. The Cardinals tried to kill Bryce Harper (no, they didn’t try to, but they did nearly do it unintentionally!) and lost, 5-3.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee (14-10, 58.8%)
T-2. St. Louis (12-12, 18.1%)
T-2. Pittsburgh (12-12, 0.9%)
4. Cincinnati (11-13, 14.2%)
5. Cubs (10-14, 8.0%)
The Cardinals are well underway against the Phillies again, tied in the ninth as I type this. The Reds are off as they await the Cubs back in Cincinnati. The Pirates are off as they await the Cardinals in Pittsburgh. The Brewers start a four-game set with the Dodgers tonight in Milwaukee, and wouldn’t it be fun if the whole NL Central was at or below .500 by the end of the weekend?
Up Next:
Avoid the sweep, please.
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Atlanta
Where:
Atlanta
When:
6:20 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Another pretty one. Temperatures in the 70’s, wind blowing from right to left at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Bryse Wilson
The Opponent:
The Cubs couldn’t get to Wilson in that Sunday Night game a week and a half back, but they did put a lot of balls in play against him. He’s hittable, and his current 5.00 ERA has been boosted by stranding an unsustainable 95.2% of baserunners. It’s only been nine innings of work, and expectations are mildly better, but the Cubs should be able to score against him.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +120 underdogs against a -130 moneyline on their hosts, implying a bit better than a 40% chance of a win. The over/under’s at 9½ and leans towards the under. My instinctive reaction is that both of those are wrong, but my numbers say not to bet on the game at all.
Cubs News:
Covered this a little in thought number three, but Báez is back tonight.
Cubs Thoughts:
If the Cubs can avoid the sweep tonight, I think they’re fine. Curious how Alzolay will do. He’s looked to be on the border of breaking through in a couple starts, now, but hasn’t been able to finish on a strong note either time. Hopefully tonight’s the night.
