Another Power Five League in Trouble, a Cleaner SEC Picture, and the Teams Still Hanging Around

As far as I can make it out, three rather significant things happened on Saturday. Those three things:

1. Oklahoma lost.

This grabbed the headlines, as it should have. Oklahoma, facing perhaps their toughest test yet, fell and fell by a decent margin in Waco. Baylor might not be the best team in the Big 12, but then again, they might be, and regardless, the Sooners’ margin for error was erased.

Also erased was the Big 12’s persistent little lane at finding itself a two-bid league. There was a scenario, going into the week, in which the Big 12 could finish with a 12-1 champion and a 12-1 runner up with plenty of ranked wins. That scenario no longer exists. The lane is closed.

2. Texas A&M lost.

We’d been toying with the possibility of a 10-2 SEC team making the field, an idea which got a lot of weight from 1) the high potential for two-loss Power Five champions elsewhere and 2) Texas A&M’s win over Alabama, who’s rather clearly one of the three best teams in the country. If Bama was 11-2, the logic went, Bama should probably make it. If Bama made it, the logic pondered, could A&M?

A&M won’t finish 10-2. Mississippi beat them. Mississippi, now, has a path to finishing 10-2, with their only losses coming against Alabama and Auburn, a respectable pair. With other wins over Arkansas, Tennessee, and—in the relevant scenario—Mississippi State, sure, there’s probably a chance. But only one or two of those teams will be ranked this week, and they probably won’t be ranked better than 20^th, and with a lack of attrition elsewhere…it really does seem the SEC’s a two-bid league at maximum. We’ll see, but that’s how it looks.

3. Wake Forest won.

Per ESPN’s FPI, Wake has an eight percent chance of winning out following their survival against NC State. Going 12-1 and winning a Power Five title is usually enough to get a team into the playoff. But, our sample is small, and the road ahead is treacherous for others. Would a 12-1 Wake get in over…

12-1 or 13-0 Georgia? No.

11-2 Alabama? Probably not.

11-2 or 10-2 Ohio State? Maybe.

11-2 Oregon? Probably.

13-0 Cincinnati? Man…I don’t know.

11-1 Notre Dame? I would think so.

11-2 Michigan? I would think so.

11-2 Michigan State? I would think so.

12-1 Oklahoma? Probably not.

11-2 Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Baylor? Probably.

The point of this is, Wake just about doubled their chances of putting themselves in a playoff position by winning this week. They’ll be underdogs next week against Clemson, but the task is not impossible, and I’d think they’d be underdogs against Pitt in the ACC Championship, but that task is also not impossible. In between those potential two, they have Boston College, who could certainly derail them, but Wake isn’t dead, unless the committee is ready to change what a Power Five title means (which is their prerogative, and some might say would be reasonable in this instance). We’ll see if it’s even a question, but them surviving that tossup game is a moderately big deal.

***

Where does that leave us?

As we’ve been citing, over the seven years of the playoff, the 28 teams have had the following résumés:

• Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team (11 out of 11 possible teams)
• One-loss Power Five conference champion (14 out of 15 possible teams)
• One-loss Power Five not conference champion (3 out of 11* possible teams) [*2014 Baylor and 2014 TCU included in this bucket and not as conference champions because committee deemed them not conference champions]

This doesn’t mean teams have to come from these buckets, or that teams will come from these buckets. It’s a statement of what’s been a proven playoff path, and an indicator of where the committee will look first for its teams before moving on to other pastures.

Which teams could still finish these paths? Here’s where we’re at:

Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team:

• Georgia

One-loss Power Five conference champion:

• Georgia
• Oklahoma
• Ohio State
• Alabama
• Michigan
• Oregon
• Michigan State
• Oklahoma State
• Wake Forest

One-loss Power Five not conference champion:

• Georgia
• Michigan
• Notre Dame

Mea culpa. I neglected, in recent posts, to notice the path for Michigan to finish 11-1, which is one where both they and Michigan State beat Ohio State. Thank you to the reader who pointed that out. Also, please note, this list doesn’t include Cincinnati, but Cincinnati most assuredly has a path. It’s out of their hands in some places, but the path is there. That leaves us with eleven relevant teams, residing in what I’ll call nine remaining lanes:

The Georgia Lane

Georgia gets in at 12-1 or 13-0, which are overwhelming probabilities at this point. I’m sorry, Georgia Tech, but I don’t think this is the year.

The Alabama Lane

Alabama’s a question at 11-2 and not a question at all at 12-1. They do still have to deal with Arkansas and Auburn, but it’s more likely those help the cause (i.e., it’s a blowout win for the Tide) than hurt it (if you want to get a bit twisted start asking what happens if Bama goes 10-2 but still wins the West, then wins the SEC).

The Big Ten Champion Lane

If the Big Ten East champion wins the Big Ten, it would be surprising for them to be left out, especially since it’s pretty hard to find a way for that Big Ten champion to have finished with two losses (something batty would have to happen, like MSU beating OSU then losing to PSU with OSU beating Michigan). If the Big Ten West champion wins the Big Ten, it would be surprising for the Big Ten to be represented, barring a solid bit of chaos around the country (Notre Dame has an emphatic head-to-head over Wisconsin, remember, and while that’s just one data point, it’s a pretty big one—on par with Oregon having won in Columbus, should these things matter).

That Weird Little Michigan Lane

If Michigan goes 11-1, they could have a shot. Any Power Five team with one loss has a shot, from what we can see right now. This is an odd and unlikely one, but it exists, and with hypothetical 10-2 Mississippi our test, this lane does pass the test.

The Oregon Lane

Oregon, it overwhelmingly seems, gets in at 12-1, to my eternal chagrin. At 11-2, their chance is better if the Utah win comes in the Pac-12 Championship, but it isn’t a great chance either way.

The Big 12 Champion Lane

12-1? Right there in the mix. 11-2? Hard to imagine they’re in the mix.

The Wake Forest Lane

Wake Forest, as mentioned, would be in the discussion at 12-1. I don’t know what the committee would do with them, but they’d be in the discussion.

The Cincinnati Lane

Cincinnati needs some help, but it really could be as simple as the one Pac-12 domino falling. If, and this is a bigger if than we’ve been making it out to be, they finish 13-0. That would mean beating SMU and Houston (yes, and you, East Carolina), and that Houston piece of it, as we’ll talk about more below, could be a hard piece.

The Notre Dame Lane

Can Notre Dame sneak into this thing? Definitely. Will they? It’s very unlikely. It’s unclear which 11-2 Power Five champions Notre Dame would outrank. But in the fairly probable scenario in which we get two-or-more-loss champions in the Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC, all they might need is a Cincinnati loss (I don’t make the head-to-head rules, guys) or Alabama getting legitimately pounded by Georgia to crack the top four. Honestly, if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten (20% likely, per FPI) and Notre Dame survives Georgia Tech and Stanford with some style…we could be looking at Georgia/Alabama/Cincinnati/Notre Dame, with four Power Five leagues slack-jawed.

***

Ok, hopefully I’ve said at least one thing that leaves you angry. That’s what we’re here for, right? Anger. Now, to ratchet it up. Here’s where our model thinks tomorrow night’s rankings will land:

Expected Ranking	LW Ranking	Team	Est. Ranking Score	FPA	Expected Ranking w/o FPA
1	1	Georgia	100.0	0.0	1
2	2	Alabama	91.1	1.9	3
3	3	Oregon	90.2	7.3	11
4	4	Ohio State	90.1	-0.9	2
5	6	Michigan	89.8	2.3	5
6	5	Cincinnati	89.2	2.3	7
7	9	Notre Dame	88.4	-0.2	4
8	7	Michigan State	86.2	-0.8	6
9	10	Oklahoma State	85.4	0.9	8
10	8	Oklahoma	80.8	-1.7	12
11	12	Wake Forest	78.8	-4.4	10
12	13	Baylor	78.7	-0.5	13
13	14	BYU	77.5	0.8	16
14	15	Mississippi	77.1	0.6	18
15	NR	Houston	76.2	-0.5	17
16	22	San Diego State	74.9	0.5	20
17	18	Wisconsin	74.8	-2.3	14
18	24	Utah	74.0	0.9	22
19	23	UTSA	73.9	-10.5	9
20	20	Iowa	73.9	-3.1	15
21	21	Pittsburgh	73.7	-1.1	19
22	11	Texas A&M	73.4	3.0	26
23	25	Arkansas	73.3	4.1	28
24	NR	Clemson	72.5	0.0	24
25	NR	Louisiana-Lafayette	72.1	0.0	25

FPA, as a reminder, carries over from last week. More on how the whole model works here.

Notes:

• Our model doesn’t have any of the rankings’ stickiness programmed in. There’s some stickiness. But there’s not as much as there is in the polls (look at Michigan and Michigan State), so while some of these (Houston) are unlikely, others (Michigan) wouldn’t be a surprise.
• Why might Michigan jump Cincinnati? To our model, it’s because Michigan has a better second and third win than Cincinnati does, and because of the Group of Five discount Cincinnati (mostly) receives. In human language, it’s because Michigan’s probably a better team than Cincinnati, and the committee might know that, and winning at Penn State isn’t meaningless, and therefore might be enough of a jolt to shake that pairing loose.
• Why did Houston and San Diego State move so much? It was so many little things. Texas Tech beating Iowa State helped Houston. Air Force beating Colorado State helped San Diego State. Many other ingredients came together. The real takeaway here is how tight it is from 11^th on down through the pack, at least to our model’s eyes. You could certainly make a case for A&M to be ranked ahead of Wake.
• One note on Houston: Houston beats teams badly. They trail only Georgia and Ohio State in APD, which is our measure of how thoroughly teams are defeating their opponents relative to those opponents’ usual results. Houston is beating the crap out of their schedule. Houston also lost to Texas Tech. Had they not, had they won by just one point, our model thinks they’d outrank Oklahoma tomorrow night, and our model might be right on that. This sucks for Cincinnati, who could really use a second (and third) good win. We’ll see if the Cougars are in the top 25. I’d be surprised if they aren’t. (One caveat here, which might be great for Cincinnati: This doesn’t mean Houston is all that good. It’s possible to get through the AAC, beating teams up, without being all that good.)
• In other where-I-think-our-model’s-wrong-this-week (and one note: Our model was built to not miss on the top four, which does mean whiffing sometimes further down the list, partially because the committee is also spending the vast majority of its time and energy on the top of the field), it wouldn’t be surprising for Mississippi State to bop back in and Louisiana-Lafayette to stay out. It wouldn’t be that surprising for Purdue to stay in. It wouldn’t be shocking if NC State stayed in. And if you’re wondering, yes, I do think Texas A&M will probably stay ahead of Wisconsin among the 7-3’s, whether they deserve that or not.
• Notre Dame would be fourth in our model’s expected rankings right now without FPA, which is mostly a reminder of how tight it is between Alabama and Oklahoma State, but also plays into an important reminder: Notre Dame has a ton less left to gain than everyone around them. The other teams have conference championships to play, and ideally (for them) win. Cincinnati at least gets to play SMU and Houston. Notre Dame hosts Georgia Tech and visits Stanford. Even if they were fourth right now, I doubt we’d have them likely to stay there. That said again, though, they’re more in the mix than folks might think, and if the committee wants an easy excuse to bump them past Michigan State, they can always point to the common opponent between the two—Purdue.
• Could Oklahoma fall past Wake Forest? Yes. Past Baylor? Yes. Past BYU? I don’t know, but man, that’d be something. Remember, too: The Sooners still have to play Iowa State (I know, I know, yesterday was among the worst of things) and Oklahoma State. 9-3 isn’t off the table.
• The big thing to watch, I’d say, is a rather small thing, really. It’s what happens after Oklahoma State. From Oklahoma State upwards, things should work themselves out. Behind Oklahoma State, more of the hay’s in the barn, and if a team’s jockeying to be the next in line in an ultimate-chaos scenario, they probably want to get to the next place in line as soon as they can. Also, Houston. That’s gonna matter for Cincinnati.

***

Now, the games themselves:

Big 12

Did you hear Kansas beat Texas?

I’m sorry, but we can’t not lead this section with that. Not from here in Big 12 territory. Also, goodness, Iowa State. What the hell was that? Great day for Texas Tech. Very happy for Texas Tech. But Iowa State, as I’ll say in half a dozen places by the time this week’s notes are all done, is so bizarrely inconsistent for how experienced they are. Gut punch. Was all in front of them again, and they pissed it away again.

Oklahoma, as said, beat Baylor. Oklahoma State, as not said, beat the pants off of TCU. Kansas State, since we already mentioned all the other games, beat West Virginia. Bullied them a little bit.

Next week, Oklahoma hosts Iowa State while Baylor goes to Kansas State, Oklahoma State goes to Texas Tech, and either Texas or West Virginia clinches missing bowl eligibility.

Big Ten

Iowa held off Minnesota, keeping pace with Wisconsin atop the Big Ten West. The Badgers, who whooped up on Northwestern, hold the head-to-head there. Michigan State handled Maryland, Ohio State handled Purdue, Michigan edged Penn State in State College.

Next week’s Ohio State/Michigan State in Columbus, with Michigan playing at Maryland, Wisconsin hosting Nebraska, and Iowa hosting Illinois.

SEC

Tennessee gave Georgia about as much of a game as anyone has, losing by a firm 24 at home. Mississippi had little trouble with Texas A&M, with the exception of a brief spell of close game midway through the second half. Alabama walloped New Mexico State. Mississippi State came back in a big way to beat Auburn. Arkansas got LSU by a field goal in overtime. Florida allowed Samford to put up 52 in Gainesville, but put up 70 of their own to avoid worsening the disaster.

Alabama hosts the Pigs next week in what’s otherwise a quiet week for the Southeastern Conference. That time of year.

ACC

On Thursday night, Pitt took down UNC in overtime, which combines with Florida State beating Miami to give the Panthers a chance to clinch the Coastal next weekend. Wake Forest, as discussed above, beat NC State, giving themselves a chance to clinch the Atlantic on Saturday. They’ll visit Clemson, Pitt hosts Virginia.

Pac-12

No sensational night for Washington State, who gave Oregon a game in Eugene before the Ducks pulled away in the fourth quarter. Utah had some trouble with Arizona but pulled through. Those two play next weekend in Salt Lake, with the winner clinching their division and the loser possibly clinching theirs as well.

The Cincinnati Cohort

The Bearcats beat South Florida on Friday night, as expected. SMU handled UCF on Saturday. Houston handled Temple. Cincinnati hosts the Mustangs next after Houston hosts Memphis.

Notre Dame

The Irish held a shorthanded Virginia to just a field goal in Charlottesville, winning 28-3.

The Group of Five (Four, I guess, since we talked about the AAC already)

UTSA had a surprisingly tough time with Southern Miss, but won. Utah State and San Diego State are looking like the Mountain West division winners, with the former beating up San José State and the latter holding off Nevada. Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette are staring down a rematch in the Sun Belt. In the MAC, it’s tight. Lot left to go there, with more Tuesday and Wednesday games this week.

FCS

Eastern Washington beat UC-Davis to make the Big Sky race officially just Montana State and Sacramento State, who could both finish undefeated in league play with wins next week. James Madison beat William & Mary to hold pace with Villanova, who holds the head-to-head in the CAA. In the mighty MVFC, South Dakota shocked South Dakota State on a Hail Mary while Missouri State put Northern Iowa at a treacherous 5-5 heading into the last week of the regular season. Tennessee-Martin has won the Ohio Valley. Holy Cross beat Fordham to win the Patriot League. Mercer and ETSU play for the SoCon crown next week after Mercer iced their win over Chattanooga with an onside kick they just pounded off the upmost blocker on the kick return team and picked up when it bounced back.

In the non-playoff playing realm, Princeton beat Yale, putting Dartmouth in control of the Ivy League once head-to-head’s considered. Alcorn State beat Prairie View A&M, but I believe PVAM’s already got the SWAC West locked down, making it them versus Jackson State for the conference title there Thanksgiving weekend.