USC is a projected two-seed in our updated bracketology. This isn’t new. They were a two-seed on Sunday also, the last time we ran an update.
Our model is, to be fair, an outlier when it comes to USC. On Bracket Matrix, only one other bracket has USC as high as we do, and that one has Marshall as a six-seed (among other oddities), implying it maybe shouldn’t be taken as seriously as that of, say, Joe Lunardi. But at the same time, our model is forward-looking, whereas many gauge where teams currently stand, and USC, with few great wins to date (the road victory over Stanford might be their best, and Stanford’s dangerously close to the bubble), has good things coming. They get to host Arizona, who’d likely be a tournament team were they not banned. They get to visit Colorado and UCLA, each of whom is comfortably in the field. They get the Pac-12 tournament, which they’re the current favorite to win (though Colorado could change that if they spend more time playing like the team that beat USC by ten in L.A. and less like the team that lost to Washington).
USC started the season ranked 48th in KenPom. They’re up to 13th. Evan Mobley should be an All-American (second team, perhaps)—a seven-footer playing more than 33 minutes per game, getting to the free throw line at one of the best clips in the country, and making free throws while there (not to mention swatting a boatload of shots and terrorizing opponents on the offensive glass). The lineup has few weak spots, a lot of length, and decent enough guard play to make things happen.
Andy Enfield has something good cooking in Los Angeles. For the very first time.
Here’s what moved over the last three days:
Moving Up: Colorado, Arkansas
The Pac-12’s other contender (in the tournament—they’re two games back in the loss column for the regular season) demolished Oregon State on Monday, holding the Beavers to just 49 points. Oregon State isn’t a very good team, but it was still a startling effort from the Buffs, and it helped them claw back some of the ground they lost losing to Washington and Utah over the last few weeks.
And then there’s the Muss Bus. Arkansas nearly coughed it up to Kentucky, but they pulled out a victory in the end, and despite Kentucky’s struggles, winning in Lexington is still a very good thing. The Hogs, now projected to land as a seven-seed, are comfortably off the bubble.
Moving Down: Texas Tech
Texas Tech was dangerously close to last year’s bubble before things got shut down. They aren’t close this year, but losing by double digits at home is only allowable for a tournament team in the Big 12 if said team is playing Baylor. And West Virginia is not Baylor.
So, Chris Beard has plenty to be upset about.
Moving In: SMU, Texas State (auto-bid)
Good news for this Lone Star pair. SMU beat East Carolina handily enough in Greenville to slide across the cut line (having received some help, which we’ll get to in a moment). Texas State, meanwhile, is the new Sun Belt favorite after Georgia State lost to South Alabama in their return to action after two weeks away.
Moving Out: Drake, Georgia State (auto-bid)
We’ve been warning you about Drake. They’re a good team within the context of the Missouri Valley, but they’d still be an underdog against Michigan State. And Kentucky. And Wright State. And when you’re not Gonzaga-dominant in a mid-major conference, you’re going to lose to someone bad at some point. That’s probability. It finally happened on Sunday, and it’s likely to happen at least one more time—our median simulation has the Bulldogs finishing with five losses overall, and they’ve got a two-game set with Loyola this weekend with Arch Madness still looming.
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One quick note on the bracket: We had to limit it to 1,000 simulations last night because…my computer restarted, unprompted, in the middle of the night and we had to run it again this morning (our stats are sound…our technology needs some work). This means the precision’s a little lower than normal, but no team’s off by more than a seed line, if even that.
