1. Too much shouldn’t be place on Adbert Alzolay’s shoulders.
It’s worth remembering after nights like last night that Alzolay wasn’t a lock to be in the rotation this year. He’s exceeded expectations, and thank goodness he has, but expectations should include nights like last night. It’s ok if nights like last night happen. Hopefully he can move past it and bounce back. Seems very possible that he will, and it’s nice for his workload that the All-Star Break is coming up.
2. Speaking of the All-Star Break…
This is a good opportunity to zoom out and look at the Cubs in the space of the National League as a whole. Here are the Cubs’ All-Star Finalists (the new format is to have three finalists at each position per league and nine in the outfield), along with where they rank in the NL in fWAR amongst their position group (using FanGraphs’s positional groupings, which track closely with where guys line up in the voting):
Willson Contreras (6th)
Anthony Rizzo (9th)
Javier Báez (7th)
Kris Bryant (4th)
Joc Pederson (45th)
To be fair, Rizzo, Báez, and Pederson have all dealt with injuries, but this is a little eye-opening. The schedule’s heavily front-loaded, but it’s also featured a lot of games against the NL Central, so how tough has it been, really? I didn’t realize Bryant had been this cold. I didn’t realize Rizzo had been this underwhelming. I assumed Contreras stacked up better, but I’m probably swayed by how much he means to the Cubs.
Anyway, the Cubs might have some All-Stars, but they might just get bullpen guys in there and honestly that would probably be ok. Rest wouldn’t be the worst thing, especially for…alright let’s get to him and then deal with what that list says about the offense.
3. Anthony Rizzo’s back is a problem.
Rizzo left last night’s game with more back issues, which might not mean an IL trip but always could mean an IL trip. I do wonder how much this should and does factor into decisions about extending him. It’s not his fault he’s having trouble staying healthy, and he has a good track record of durability, but he’s also had these back issues before and they seem to be their worst this year, and I don’t think of back issues as something that gets better as a guy gets older.
4. When is it fair to be concerned about the offense?
The Cubs, as you probably know, have faced some brutally tough pitching. Unfortunately, that doesn’t get better this series, as they face arguably the best three-man combo in the NL in Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes. The Reds, Phillies, and Cardinals are up next before the Break, and while all those teams have some good starters (with a little rain, you could draw Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Adam Wainwright for half those games), they aren’t the Brewers’ or the Dodgers’ or the Padres’ or the Mets’ rotations. So if the offense is still scuffling at the All-Star Break, yeah, be concerned, but another three bad days probably isn’t enough to justify freaking out.
5. Winning this series would be very nice.
Losing this series wouldn’t be disastrous, but winning it would keep the Brewers within arm’s reach, and the Brewers, like the Cubs, get to play the NL Central a whole bunch the rest of the year, which means they too have a fairly easy slate.
If the Cubs do win the series, they’ll have 44 wins through 81 games, and if we’d been told in April that the Cubs would finish the first half on an 88-win pace, we would have taken it with glee. It’s a shame that the Brewers have done as well as they’ve done making their layups, and it’s a shame that San Francisco has made it look improbable to capitalize on Atlanta’s struggles and contend for a wild card spot if the division doesn’t happen, but 88 wins isn’t that far from 90, and 90 should be enough to win the NL Central. We’ll get to the playoff odds, but if you flip the FanGraphs method to season-to-date stats, the Cubs do jump to 36.4% likely to win the division (against 49.4% for the Brewers), and that’s with the most common outcome in those simulations still that the Cubs lose this series. Win this series and, though the Cubs would still be two games back, you’re even with the Brewers in division championship probability if everyone keeps playing as they’ve played to date, on the aggregate.
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Around the Division:
As you may know or may have gathered, the Brewers finished their sweep of the Rockies, winning 5-0 yesterday as Eric Lauer threw six strong innings and the offense came through in just enough time to save the bullpen, unfortunately for the Cubs. The Reds did lose to Atlanta, getting blanked 4-0 by Kyle Muller and friends, while the Cardinals didn’t manage a baserunner until the 7th against Pittsburgh and got beat 7-2.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 45-33, 73.4%
2. Cubs: 42-36, 17.0%
3. Cincinnati: 38-38, 7.5%
4. St. Louis: 37-41, 2.0%
5. Pittsburgh: 29-47, 0.0%
The Reds host Philadelphia in a makeup game this evening. Wade Miley vs. Spencer Howard. The Cardinals start a series with the Diamondbacks, and it’s Wade LeBlanc vs. Jake Faria in the opener.
Up Next:
Three with the Brewers to close out the gauntlet.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee
When:
7:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
The Stadium Formerly Known as Miller Park (How did changing that name not curse the Brewers? Did it? Let’s hope it did.)
Weather:
Chance of rain, so decent likelihood the roof will be closed.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Freddy Peralta
The Opponent:
I hate that Freddy Peralta exists. The Brewers would feel much more manageable if he didn’t.
Peralta, 25, is better than his career average in pretty much everything, and while his BABIP and LOB% don’t look sustainable, his 2.79 FIP and 2.50 xERA are nevertheless striking. He’s 14th in baseball in pitcher fWAR and will probably leapfrog Brandon Woodruff with a good game tonight. Among qualified starters, he has the fourth-highest strikeout rate and the seventh-highest walk rate. Would be a good night for the Cubs to draw some walks, but doing that likely won’t be a fun time, as that’ll also up strikeout numbers. Just a terribly hard guy to actually hit.
In injury news, Daniel Vogelbach’s out with a hamstring strain, Travis Shaw’s on the 60-day IL with a shoulder thing, Lorenzo Cain isn’t expected back this series from his hamstring issue, Brett Anderson is on the IL but that doesn’t affect the Cubs this series anyway, and that’s about it in terms of meaningful names.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +130 underdogs, with Milwaukee at -140. So, about a 41% chance of a win. Over/under’s at seven and favors the over.
Cubs News:
Nico Hoerner has begun his rehab assignment, as have Justin Steele and Trevor Williams. Hoerner went 1-for-2 yesterday. Williams struck out two over two innings. Steele allowed a solo home run in his one inning of work.
One interesting thing here: The I-Cubs went Williams, Kohl Stewart, Steele, Kyle Ryan, Trevor Megill last night, meaning every pitcher they threw out there has thrown MLB innings this year. Unfortunately, they’re still in last place in the International League’s Midwest Division, and yes I think we should bring back the old minor league names as soon as possible.
Cubs Thoughts:
The Cubs are still 13-13 over this stretch, and 12-13 over the month, and the only real complaint is that they didn’t win that series against the Marlins at Wrigley. The Brewers have just taken advantage of a favorable stretch of schedule, and now the Cubs are in a spot of trouble. Win tonight, and that pressure lessens. Win this series, and you can breathe easy entering July. Which isn’t to say that the Cubs will be division favorites if they win the series. It’s to say that they’ll have finished the stretch in a competitive fashion, and that they can be expected to keep competing and selling won’t look reasonable.
Don’t be surprised if Willson Contreras gets a game off during this series. Wednesday might be the day, with it a day game and Jake Arrieta pitching and Corbin Burnes out there for the home team. With that in mind, man—Cubs could really use the win tonight. Probably their best shot of the set, followed by tomorrow.
