Alright, We’ll Talk About Anthony Rizzo and the Vaccine

Friday afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field.

Whom:

Cubs vs. St. Louis

When:

1:20 PM Chicago Time

Where:

Wrigley Field

Weather:

Nothing too wild. Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing in from right at five to ten miles per hour.

Starting Pitchers:

Kohl Stewart vs. Johan Oviedo

The Opponent:

The Cardinals have struggled since the Cubs last saw them, winning just six of the sixteen games since that weekend set. Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader, and Kwang Hyun Kim are all on the IL. Paul DeJong is being activated from the IL, which gives them a boost, but they’re in a tough spot, and the prospect that they’ll sell at least some small pieces at the deadline (Kim, if healthy, would be a solid chip) is looking not entirely unlikely. The narrative on this team is a lot different from its current roster construction, as we’ve been seeing in the FanGraphs playoff odds. That said, they’re only three back in the division and they’re two games over .500, putting them in the top half of the National League.

As far as Oviedo goes…he’s having a hard time. His ERA’s 5.25. His xERA’s 5.48. His FIP’s 6.02. Those weren’t much better last year over a similar sample size. He’s walking more than two batters every three innings, and while he’s a decent prospect (eighth in the Cardinals’ organization, per FanGraphs, but not top-100 league-wide) and he’s only 23, he’s only in this rotation because of injuries, and there’s a case to be made that the Cardinals should stop his service time from accruing while he’s so clearly struggling.

The Numbers:

The Cubs are -135 favorites, with the Cardinals at +125. The over/under’s at nine and favors the over.

Around the Division:

The Brewers beat the Reds yesterday, 7-2. Luis Castillo was doing well until he wasn’t. The Reds have placed Sonny Gray on the IL.

Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:

T-1. Milwaukee: 35-27, 57.1%
T-1. Cubs: 35-27, 26.5%
3. St. Louis: 32-30, 9.6%
4. Cincinnati: 29-31, 6.8%
5. Pittsburgh: 23-38, 0.0%

The Brewers host the Pirates for three this weekend, with Brandon Woodruff opposite Chase De Jong tonight (Corbin Burnes tomorrow, Adrian Houser on Sunday for the Crew). The Reds host the Rockies for three, with Tyler Mahle on the bump against Kyle Freeland in the opener.

Cubs News:

Well, the big headline is that Anthony Rizzo said on the radio this morning that he’s one of the unvaccinated guys on the Cubs. There’s a wide span of reasonable reactions to this. My reaction is mostly surprise.

For what it’s worth, here’s what I found from the American Cancer Society on cancer survivors, the Covid vaccine, and other vaccines:

Many expert medical groups recommend that most patients with cancer or a history of cancer should get a COVID-19 vaccine. Since the situation for every person is different, it is best to discuss the risks and benefits of getting the COVID-19 vaccine with your cancer doctor, who can advise you.

Is it safe for cancer patients to get any type of vaccine?

People with cancer (or with a history of cancer) can get some vaccines, but this depends on many factors, such as the type of vaccine, the type of cancer a person has (had), if they are still being treated for cancer, and if their immune system is working properly. Because of this, it’s best to talk with your doctor before getting any type of vaccine. To learn more, see Vaccinations and Flu Shots for People with Cancer.

The risk to the Cubs in a wins-and-losses sense is that a guy getting the coronavirus will miss some time (potentially a lot of time), and that until the team’s 85% vaccinated (if they ever get there), they’re at risk of having a lot of guys sidelined due to contact tracing thanks to one positive test in the clubhouse, which could result in DFA’s to make roster space, losing games at the wrong time and being sellers at the deadline, etc. The risks on the baseball field are real. Clearly, the personal and interpersonal risks are ones Anthony Rizzo is willing to accept, and while I don’t know what he thinks, he’s not an expendable player, so what are you going to do? You can cut Eric Sogard (if he’s unvaccinated, as is the suspicion given his wife’s social media activity). Eric Sogard isn’t producing (you might want to cut Eric Sogard anyway, vaccine or not). But Anthony Rizzo is a franchise cornerstone, and so even if you think getting the vaccine is a moral imperative (I’m not as black-and-white on that as some, but I do lean heavily in that direction), it’s more like dealing with a stubborn family member than a friend you can just stop seeing for a year. You aren’t getting rid of Anthony Rizzo.

Hopefully the Cubs somehow get to 85% so we can move on and stop talking about this issue. Shouting about it doesn’t help. And so when I get past the surprise and the questioning, this mostly makes me feel sad. And a little pissed that the powers that be aren’t doing a good-enough job of demonstrating how safe and effective these vaccines are. The numbers are staggeringly positive.

Elsewhere, P.J. Higgins is going on the IL. Forearm strain. José Lobatón has been called up—veteran guy, not a great hitter—and Dakota Chalmers, that reliever the Cubs just grabbed on waivers from the Twins, has been DFA’d to make 40-man roster space.

Elsewhere still, Javy Báez is back in the lineup, which looks like this:

1. Joc Pederson (LF)
2. Kris Bryant (CF)
3. Javier Báez (SS)
4. Anthony Rizzo (1B)
5. Willson Contreras (C)
6. Patrick Wisdom (3B)
7. Jason Heyward (RF)
8. Sergio Alcántara (2B)
9. Kohl Stewart (P)

That’s a pretty good lineup. You’d rather have Nico Hoerner in there than Alcántara, all else equal, but besides that and the Happ/Heyward question, that’s probably the Cubs’ best lineup right now. And it’s worth remembering that were injuries not a thing, Patrick Wisdom would not be in that lineup.

Cubs Thoughts:

I shared a lot of these above, so I’ll try to keep this quicker. I’m still high on Kohl Stewart. His Twins sample size was small and not that bad. His first two starts with the Cubs have been collectively solid. I know he struggled at AAA in 2019, but that’s one terrible year. Pitchers have those, and I’m not sure he’s that much worse a bet than Jake Arrieta or Trevor Williams at the bottom of the rotation. I could be proven wrong, though. That is eminently possible.

The Cubs’ target, from these blog posts, was a 45-36 mark at the end of June. They’ve outperformed expectations so far, winning one more game over the last ten than expected. Should we upgrade to 46-35?

I’ll hold off for now. But the marks to get to 45-36 are as follows (and are obviously interchangeable, this is just a proof-of-viability thing):

St. Louis/Cleveland/Milwaukee: 4-4
New York/Los Angeles: 4-4
Miami: 2-1

I’m not sure the Cubs will be favored tomorrow. I think they will be, but John Gant has been good. It’s hard to say what Sunday will bring given the starting pitching situation is so up in the air for it. If I had to guess, Zach Davies will bump up and pitch on normal rest, but maybe it’s Alec Mills, or maybe it’s a bullpen day with Keegan Thompson leading the way.

As far as the backup catching situation goes…woof. They miss Caratini right now.