In the final Game One of the four Division Series, we get our first matchup of 100-plus-win teams, as the Twins travel to the Bronx to commence affairs with the Yankees.
Here’s what to know:
How They Got Here
Neither team had it easy when it came to winning its division. The Yankees suffered injuries to just about every contributing member. The Twins entered the season heavy underdogs. But both figured it out—the Yankees through contributions from an army of overachieving role players, the Twins by jumping out to a big lead in the Central and holding off a late-season charge from Cleveland. Now, the Yankees are relatively healthy, and they’ll have their healthy hands full.
Who’s Pitching
The Twins are without suspended right-hander Michael Pineda, whose 4.02 FIP was the third-best among their starting pitchers before he tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
Even with Pineda rostered, José Berríos (3.85 FIP) would have been the Game One starter, so that won’t change. Also a right-hander, the 25-year-old has long been a key part of the Twins’ plans. This year, he’s got a good chance to make those plans real, and after a mid-season velocity drop, he’s been throwing the hardest he has all season in recent starts, indicating he’s entering the playoffs at full strength.
Tomorrow, Minnesota figures to go with Berríos’ fellow righty, Jake Odorizzi (3.36), at the tail-end of what’s been a career season on his part. It’s come at the right time for his bank account, as he’s poised to become a free agent for the first time this offseason.
Beyond those two, it’s more uncertain. Righty Kyle Gibson (4.26) would be the obvious choice, but health problems have limited him to a bullpen role down the stretch. Left-handed Devin Smeltzer (4.58) and his fellow rookie, the right-handed Randy Dobnak (2.90), have each swung between the bullpen and the rotation, with Dobnak performing especially well. The Twins have also shown they aren’t averse to bullpen games—it’s possible they’ll choose to go that route at any point in the series.
In the bullpen, beyond Gibson, Dobnak, and Smeltzer, manager Rocco Baldelli has Cody Stashak (3.01), Tyler Duffey (3.06), Brusdar Graterol (3.42), Zack Littell (3.62), Sergio Romo (3.68), Trevor May (3.73), and Taylor Rogers (2.85) at his disposal. Rogers is the closer, and the only lefty on the staff beyond Smeltzer. Romo offers some postseason experience the others, for the most part, lack. It’s a strong corps, but one that may have to be worked heavily to get through five possible games, especially against the fearsome Yankee lineup.
For the Yankees, after struggling to get reliable starts for much of the year, things are coming together. Game One starter James Paxton (3.86) pitched his best over the season’s final two months, with a 3.26 FIP and 2.51 ERA over 61 innings. Masahiro Tanaka (4.27), the Game Two starter, has been himself—reliable, though rarely dominant. Luis Severino has returned in time for the playoffs, turning in a 2.13 FIP over his three September starts, the longest of which lasted 80 pitches. For Game Four, the Yankees could return to the left-handed Paxton, opt for a bullpen game, or take a chance on J.A. Happ (5.22), who’s struggled this year. The most likely scenario is probably a bullpen game, but on the heels of an abridged Severino outing, Aaron Boone might be working with a worn-out crew by that point, so watch Paxton’s pitch count tonight. This is an issue of low importance relative to the well-being of the victim in the investigation into Domingo Germán’s alleged domestic violence, but it’s worth noting that he will remain suspended for the entirety of the Yankees’ postseason stay.
In the bullpen, in addition to Happ, Boone has right-handers Tommy Kahnle (3.33), Chad Green (3.34), Adam Ottavino (3.44), Luis Cessa (4.87), and Jonathan Loaisiga (4.95), plus lefties Zach Britton (3.74), Tyler Lyons (6.06), and Aroldis Chapman (2.28). Chapman is still the closer, and there are plenty of strong pitchers on the staff, but the team misses Dellin Betances’ work. It isn’t a painfully present absence, especially with him gone nearly the entire year, but they lack the depth he provides.
Who’s Hitting
The lineups tonight are as follows, with regular season wRC+’s in parentheses:
Twins:
C: Mitch Garver (155)
SS: Jorge Polanco (119)
DH: Nelson Cruz (163)
RF: Eddie Rosario (103)
3B: Miguel Sanó (137)
CF: Max Kepler (121)
LF: Marwin Gonzalez (93)
1B: C.J. Cron (101)
2B: Luis Arraez (125)
Arraez, relatively surprisingly, is able to play after injuring his ankle during the regular season’s final weekend. Similarly, Gonzalez is playing after missing the last six games with an oblique issue. Kepler is returning from a shoulder injury. On the bench, Ehire Adrianza (102) is also returning after missing time with an oblique problem.
Beyond injuries, the big story with this offense throughout the year has been its sheer potency. Garver has especially surprised, turning into a veritable force at the plate while performing well behind it too. He’s backed up by Jason Castro (103), a left-handed hitter who starts a good deal against right-handed pitching. In addition to him and Adrianza, Baldelli has Jonathan Schoop (100) and Jake Cave (113) available, with both possibly starting against righties.
Yankees:
1B: DJ LeMahieu (136)
RF: Aaron Judge (141)
CF: Brett Gardner (115)
DH: Edwin Encarnación (129)
LF: Giancarlo Stanton (139)
2B: Gleyber Torres (125)
C: Gary Sánchez (116)
SS: Didi Gregorius (84)
3B: Gio Urshela (132)
The Yankees, true to their 2019 form, are also a bit banged up. Encarnación is making his first start since September 12th after missing time with an oblique issue. Urshela sprained his ankle on Sunday, but is evidently ready to play. It’s not the lineup the franchise envisioned this offseason, but no matter who’s been plugged in, they’ve almost all produced, giving them one of the strongest starting nine’s by wRC+ in the postseason.
On the bench, the backup catcher is Austin Romine (95). Luke Voit (126) provides a first base/designated hitter option. Cameron Maybin (127) provides speed and outfield help, and Tyler Wade (88) provides speed and help all over the diamond.
Who Will Win
FanGraphs has the Yankees as about 61% favorites tonight, and 60% favorites over the course of the series. Las Vegas has the Yankees as roughly 64% favorites tonight, and 68% favorites to win the series. It’s worth noting that the Yankees have reportedly received a high number of public wagers, but it’s unclear how or whether this has shifted lines, and how many of those wagers are “fan” bets as opposed to the market reaching an efficient price.
Overall, yes, the Yankees are favorites. But the Twins won 101 games. Their worst rostered hitter posted a 93 wRC+ on the year. They have only two pitchers with FIP’s above four on the year. The American League path is not going to be easy on whoever makes the World Series, and it’s far from impossible for that team to be Minnesota.
