It’s the fullest day of postseason baseball we’ll get, tied with Monday if both NL series reach a Game Four. And taking the early shift down in Houston are two of the best-constructed rosters in the game.
Here’s what to know:
How They Got Here
The Astros entered the season as the borderline World Series favorite, right there with the Yankees. They didn’t disappoint, and even while various AL West teams made runs here and there, their playoff probability on FanGraphs never dipped below 99% from the middle of May onward.
The Rays, who we talked about more on Wednesday, took care of business in Oakland Wednesday night behind the bats of Yandy Díaz & friends and the arms of Charlie Morton & friends. They might be a wild card, and they might be the Rays, but they won 96 regular season games. That’s a lot.
Who’s Pitching
For the Astros, it’s straightforward. Justin Verlander (3.27 FIP) will start today. Gerrit Cole (2.64) starts tomorrow. Zack Greinke (3.28) is lined up to pitch Monday in Game Three. Game Four, if it happens, could go to Verlander, Wade Miley (4.51), or Jose Urquidy (3.68). Miley’s the staff’s lone rostered lefty for the series. Urquidy’s a rookie who, though relatively unheralded, has impressed.
Out of the bullpen, it’s Miley and Urquidy, plus Ryan Pressly (2.66), Joe Smith (3.09), Will Harris (3.15), Roberto Osuna (3.21), Josh James (3.98), and Héctor Rondón (4.96). Osuna’s the closer. In front of him, pretty much anyone can be relied on to get the job done. While the pitching staff’s headlined by the starters, it’s a very deep bullpen, and even with just one lefty, a number of these guys have stronger numbers against left-handed hitters than other “left-handed specialists” across the league.
For the Rays, it’s a bit more complicated. Tyler Glasnow (2.26) will start today, but he’s not back to full strength yet after missing a large chunk of the season with a forearm injury. His longest outing since returning has lasted only 66 pitches, and while he’s steadily been increasing that total, it’s unreasonable to expect more than 75 or 80 from him today.
Tomorrow is more of the same. Blake Snell (3.32) is expected to get the nod, but the reigning Cy Young winner underwent a procedure on his elbow this summer and, like Glasnow, is still working his way back. His maximum pitch count since returning is 62.
Finally, Morton (2.81 in the regular season) is expected to start Game Three. For Game Four, it might be Glasnow on three days of rest, but Ryan Yarbrough (3.55) would make a lot of sense, and both Yonny Chirinos (4.44) and Brendan McKay (5.14) are starters rostered for the series. McKay and Yarbrough are lefties, as is Snell. Glasnow, Morton, and Chirinos are all right-handed. And it of course would be no surprise if the Rays used an opener.
Expect Kevin Cash to get creative with his bullpen at times, mixing and matching as the situations warrant. It’s the same group he had available in the wild card game—Nick Anderson (2.35), Emilio Pagán (3.30), Chaz Roe (3.31), Diego Castillo (3.72), Oliver Drake (3.87), and Colin Poche (4.08)—plus Chirinos and McKay. Poche is a lefty.
Who’s Hitting
The lineups for today are as follows, with regular season wRC+’s in parentheses:
Astros:
CF: George Springer (156)
2B: José Altuve (138)
LF: Michael Brantley (133)
3B: Alex Bregman (168)
DH: Yordan Alvarez (178)
1B: Yuli Gurriel (132)
SS: Carlos Correa (143)
C: Robinson Chirinos (113)
RF: Josh Reddick (94)
It’s a stacked lineup, with an eye-popping 125 wRC+ that leads the MLB by a solid margin. Reddick is the only below-average hitter, and he’s been too good at other points in his career to ever be taken lightly.
Backing up Chirinos behind the plate is Martín Maldonado (76), who returned to the team in roundabout fashion over the month of July. Also available off the bench are middle infielder Aledmys Díaz (119), outfielders Kyle Tucker (122) and Jake Marisnick (86), and utility man Myles Straw (104). Tucker gives them a left-handed bat. Straw and Marisnick give them a lot of speed.
Rays:
RF: Austin Meadows (142)
LF: Tommy Pham (121)
1B: Ji-Man Choi (121)
DH: Yandy Díaz (116)
2B: Brandon Lowe (125)
C: Travis d’Arnaud (98)
3B: Joey Wendle (71)
CF: Kevin Kiermaier (78)
SS: Willy Adames (97)
The Rays have loaded up on left-handed bats against the right-handed Verlander, opting to start lefties Choi and Wendle over right-handed outfielder Avisaíl García (112) and right-handed third baseman Matt Duffy (88). In addition to García, Duffy, and catcher Mike Zunino (45)—who split time with d’Arnaud for much of the regular season and excels as a defensive backstop—trade deadline acquisition Eric Sogard (115) is evidently back from his foot injury. Sogard has solely played second base for the Rays, but he played a little bit of outfield, third base, and shortstop for the Blue Jays earlier this year. He may not be available today, or even tomorrow, but the fact that he’s rostered is a positive sign for Tampa Bay, and indicates that if nothing else, they can make use of his bat. It’s also worth noting that McKay was a two-way player in the minor leagues, with a 112 wRC+ at AAA, though he’s only gotten eleven MLB plate appearances. He and Sogard are both left-handed hitters.
To make room for Sogard, McKay, and Chirinos, the Rays took Matt Brousseau, Jesús Aguilar, and Daniel Robertson off the 25-man.
Who Will Win
FanGraphs gives the Rays about a 36% chance of winning the series, while Las Vegas has it down at 27%. In today’s game, Las Vegas is more sympathetic, which is an interesting dichotomy indicating some confidence in Glasnow to pitch well and perhaps last longer than his recent pitch counts would indicate. Still, the Vegas odds imply only about a 31% chance of Tampa Bay winning today, while FanGraphs has that probability at about 35%.
The Astros are, top to bottom, the better team, but while the Rays can’t get as many innings out of their starters, the FIP’s line up comparably. Houston is deservedly the favorite. But Tampa Bay probably isn’t getting enough credit.
