The ALCS is upon us, and unlike its National League counterpart, it’s been the most likely matchup ever since mid-June, according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds. Even the stints in which it wasn’t were short: the one in mid-June when the Twins led the Yankees, and the one in mid-May when the Red Sox briefly showed signs of contention. Now, Astros/Yankees is upon us at last.
They’re the two best American League teams on paper. They’re the two best American League teams on the field. We get to watch them play between four and seven games over the next five to nine days.
How They Got Here
The Astros faced the biggest challenge they’ve had all season earlier this week, as the Rays pushed them to a decisive fifth game. But when Gerrit Cole is your Game Five starter, you’re in a good spot, and Houston, as was expected, ultimately triumphed. All year the Astros have done what’s been expected, making easy work of the AL West, getting past the Rays, and making aggressive moves like the one that brought them tonight’s starter, Zack Greinke, at the trade deadline. They are the ideal form of a championship team.
The Yankees, of course, have faced a lot of adversity this year in the form of injuries. But in the ALDS, they pulverized the Twins, and they enter the ALCS in as good of shape as could be desired, absent maybe another starting pitcher. They might not have the roster they envisioned when the year began, but the one they have won them 103 games in the regular season and swept the Twins with ease. They’ve yet to formally announce their 25-man for the ALCS, but whoever’s on it will be more than competent.
Who’s Pitching
For the Astros, it’s likely to line up as follows (regular season FIP in parentheses):
Game One: Greinke (3.28)
Game Two: Justin Verlander (3.27)
Game Three: Cole (2.64)
Game Four: Bullpen Game?
The Astros’ “big three” are a potent force. They ranked first (Cole), fifth (Verlander), and ninth (Greinke) in all of the MLB in pitcher fWAR. Only four teams had a single starter better than Greinke by that metric.
Game Four, though, is a questionable one. It’s possible the Astros would trot Greinke out there on short rest, moving the whole rotation ahead with him, but that strategy seems needlessly aggressive when they’ve got this guy rostered:
Jose Urquidy (3.68)
Urquidy threw 79 pitches in an outing as recently as September 27th. A rookie, his FIP is admirable, even across a small sample, and his xwOBA is in the MLB’s top quintile, implying the FIP is no fluke. Either option is a good one, even if Greinke likely wouldn’t be operating at full capacity.
Elsewhere in the bullpen, there are questions as to who the Astros will roster. The following guys seem safe bets:
Ryan Pressly (2.66)
Joe Smith (3.09)
Will Harris (3.15)
Roberto Osuna (3.21)
Josh James (3.98)
Héctor Rondón (4.96)
But don’t rule out the possibility of Rondón being left off, as well as the ALDS roster’s lone left-hander:
Wade Miley (4.51)
If one of those two does stay off, it would probably be in favor of one or both of the following right-handers:
Brad Peacock (4.42)
Bryan Abreu (3.99 at AA)
Peacock was a starter for the season’s first half before missing time with a collection of shoulder and nerve issues. Upon returning, he was limited to a bullpen role. Abreu was a September callup who pitched well (1.25 FIP) in his seven relief appearances.
For the Yankees, pitching is more of a question mark than it is for their opponent, as would be true for just about anyone facing the 2019 Houston Astros. For starters, they line up right now as follows:
Game One: Masahiro Tanaka (4.27)
Game Two: James Paxton (3.86)
Game Three: Luis Severino (2.13 over three starts)
Game Four: ?????
Tanaka, a righty, is reliable but rarely excellent. Paxton, a lefty, has been dominant at times in his career and pitched very well over the stretch run. Severino, a righty, returned from injury at the very end of the regular season and has performed nearly flawlessly, though his highest pitch count so far in 2019 has been only 83.
New York didn’t need a Game Four starter in the ALDS, so we didn’t see what they’d do when push came to shove, but the options are either a bullpen game or one of the following:
J.A. Happ (5.22)
CC Sabathia (5.66)
Sabathia, a lefty, didn’t make the ALDS roster as he continued to recover from shoulder trouble. He’s rumored to be expected to be on the final ALCS 25-man when that list is announced later today, but we don’t know for certain. Happ, a righty, threw just one inning in the ALDS, but he too is a starting pitcher by trade, making him an option.
In the bullpen, most of the roster is set in stone. The following right-handers should be there:
Tommy Kahnle (3.33)
Chad Green (3.34)
Adam Ottavino (3.44)
Luis Cessa (4.87)
Jonathan Loaisiga (4.95)
Along with lefties:
Aroldis Chapman (2.28)
Zach Britton (3.74)
On the bubble is one more lefty, who was among the ALDS crew but projects to be the odd man out if Sabathia returns and the Yankees only go with twelve pitchers:
Tyler Lyons (6.06)
It’s a very good bullpen. But for all its notoriety, it’s only marginally better than that of the Astros until you get to the Chapman/Osuna comparison, at which point the Yankees have a clear advantage.
Who’s Hitting
The Yankees lineup figures to look something like the following, which they used for all three ALDS contests (regular season wRC+ in parentheses):
1B: DJ LeMahieu (136)
RF: Aaron Judge (141)
CF: Brett Gardner (115)
DH: Edwin Encarnación (129)
LF: Giancarlo Stanton (139)
2B: Gleyber Torres (125)
C: Gary Sánchez (116)
SS: Didi Gregorius (84)
3B: Gio Urshela (132)
But they’re reportedly returning an outfielder from injury:
Aaron Hicks (102)
If Hicks starts in center field, the Yankees could move LeMahieu to third base, Encarnación to first, Gardner to left, Stanton to DH, and Urshela to the bench. They could also bench Gregorius, with LeMahieu at second and Torres at shortstop. They have options.
Elsewhere on the bench, there’s only one guy who seems certain to be rostered:
C: Austin Romine (95)
With utility man Tyler Wade (88) reportedly not making the cut. On the bubble, then, are:
1B: Luke Voit (126)
OF: Cameron Maybin (127)
If the Yankees go with twelve pitchers, both Voit and Maybin figure to make it. If the number of pitchers is thirteen, one presumably has to go.
Right-handed hitters are: LeMahieu, Judge, Encarnación, Stanton, Torres, Sánchez, Urshela, Romine, Voit, and Maybin. Lefties are Gardner and Gregorious. Hicks is a switch-hitter. The prevalence of right-handed bats is part of what’s driving the speculation that the Astros will leave Miley unrostered.
For Houston, the lineup tonight will likely look something like the following:
RF: George Springer (156)
2B: José Altuve (138)
LF: Michael Brantley (133)
3B: Alex Bregman (168)
DH: Yordan Alvarez (178)
1B: Yuli Gurriel (132)
SS: Carlos Correa (143)
RF: Josh Reddick (94)
C: Robinson Chirinos (113)
On the bench, the following pieces seem to be the most likely crew:
C: Martín Maldonado (76)
2B/SS: Aledmys Díaz (119)
OF: Kyle Tucker (122)
OF: Jake Marisnick (86)
With one more on the bubble:
UTIL: Myles Straw (104)
It’s possible that in the scenario in which Peacock and Abreu are added and only Miley is removed, someone other than Straw will get the boot, but he’s the one commonly thrown around by folks who known the Astros better than this blogger does.
Maldonado caught Cole in both games of the ALDS, so it’s expected that he’ll do the same in the ALCS. Tucker started over Reddick against the left-handed Blake Snell in Game Two of the ALDS.
Right-handed hitters are: Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Gurriel, Correa, Chirinos, Maldonado, Díaz, Marisnick, and Straw. Lefties are: Brantley, Alvarez, Reddick, and Tucker.
Together, the offenses were the two best in the MLB in the regular season as measured by wRC+. The pitching staffs are amply stocked, which could lead to some drawn-out innings as Aaron Boone and A.J. Hinch play the matchups. For Boone, this figures to come earlier in each game than for Hinch, but you can never know.
Who Will Win
FanGraphs has the Astros as roughly 64% favorites in the series. Las Vegas has that probability around 60%. Both agree, though, that Houston is favored by a substantial margin. Each team has a great offense. Each has a great bullpen. But the Yankees’ starting pitching is a little suspect, whereas the Astros’ staff is the most reliably good coalition out there. In a seven-game series, they get to throw a higher percentage of the total innings than in the regular season. This matters.
Something was briefly made of the fact that Yankees got to rest after beating the Twins, rather than playing all the way to a Game Five as the Astros did, but the Astros haven’t had to travel in half a week, and Cole took care of things in such a way in Game Five as to leave the bullpen perfectly fresh for the beginning of the ALCS. If Boone’s team can come out and grab the series lead, things will look a lot different, but as long as its tied or better for the Astros, advantage Houston.
