After an electric beginning last night, it’s day two of the MLB playoffs. In just a few minutes, the A’s and Rays show down in Oakland for the opportunity to play the Astros in the Division Series.
The Rays, as is being widely noted, have the lowest payroll in the MLB this season. They also have the second-lowest attendance. It’s not unusual for them to be good. But they’ve yet to win a championship. The phenomenon that is the Tampa Bay Rays can’t be adequately explained in one blog post—especially one trying to preview a specific game—but perhaps can most succinctly be covered by saying that they’re simultaneously participating in the playoffs and considering splitting future seasons between Montreal and Tampa.
The A’s are, as one might guess if one’s read or watched Moneyball, also on the lower end of the payroll tally. They and the Rays both rely on a collection of young talent and scraps collected from elsewhere. It’s a model that links the two franchises strategically, and one pioneered by Billy Beane.
Here’s what to expect tonight:
How They Got Here
The Rays stormed out of the gate, winning 14 of their first 18 and spending much of the season’s first half atop the AL East. They stumbled a bit in the second half, dealing with injuries to reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, potential young ace Tyler Glasnow, and rookie infielder Brandon Lowe, among others. While they righted the ship in time to take advantage of a Red Sox dip and hold off Cleveland down the stretch, they did not do enough to earn themselves a home game tonight or give the Yankees a race for the division title.
The A’s did not storm out of the gate. They were below .500 in early June. But, as they did last year, the men in green and gold poured it on over the season’s second half, blitzing into the thick of the wild card race and then climbing to the top of the heap. Now, for the second straight year, they get the chance to win one game and make the division series. They get that chance at home in Oakland.
Who’s Pitching
Given how strong these teams’ bullpens are, the answer to this is quite possibly a lot of guys. But each has a very good starter that could flip the narrative and last deep into the night.
Charlie Morton starts for the Rays. A former Astro, Phillie, Pirate, and Brave, the right-hander’s having his best season yet at the age of 35. Over 33 starts, he’s managed a 2.81 FIP, making him one of the five best starters in the MLB with enough innings to qualify for things like the ERA title. He’s operating with a comfortable amount of rest, having last pitched a week ago against the Yankees.
Sean Manaea will be Morton’s opponent. Manaea, a lefty, missed most of the year following shoulder surgery for an injury that initially shut him down in August of 2018. He made his season debut on September 1st, and while he hasn’t hit 100 pitches yet in a game, he’s thrown as many as seven innings in an outing, posting an impressive 3.42 FIP over his five starts.
Snell is available for the Rays out of the bullpen, but he hasn’t thrown three full innings yet in an outing since returning, and he’d be throwing with just two days of rest after turning in 62 pitches on Sunday. He’s likely ready if Rays manager Kevin Cash needs him, but one would imagine Cash would be loathe to use the lefty. Another left-handed option, Ryan Yarbrough, also a starter, threw 79 pitches on Saturday, giving him three days of rest. Yarbrough and Snell each have FIP’s below 3.60 on the year, and Yarbrough’s used to pitching unconventional innings, having commonly been the Rays’ “bulk reliever” following an opener across the season’s first half. The final lefty, Colin Poche, has a perfectly solid 4.08 FIP, and could definitely be seen in a situational setting. But in a loaded bullpen that ranked second in the MLB in FIP, he’s far from the best option.
Who are those better options? Expect to see Nick Anderson at some point. Anderson, a trade deadline acquisition from the Marlins, has been one of the best relievers in the game this system, with a 2.35 FIP that’s been only 1.62 since coming to Tampa. Glasnow (2.26 FIP), who was nearly untouchable both before and after his injury, could find his way in there. The remaining right-handers—Emilio Pagán, Diego Castillo, Oliver Drake, and Chaz Roe—all also have FIP’s under four, meaning whoever Cash turns to should be expected to get outs.
Not to be outdone, the A’s feature a comparably impressive bullpen, with a 3.98 FIP on the season, good for third in the MLB. The corps is led by the Australian Liam Hendriks and his 1.87 FIP. His fellow righties are veterans Yusmeiro Petit (3.59 FIP) and Joakim Soria (3.62); September call-up J.B. Wendelken (2.94), who bounced between AAA and the majors for the earlier part of the season but was lights-out down the stretch; and starters Chris Bassitt (4.40) and Mike Fiers (4.97), the latter of whom we are legally obligated to note threw a no-hitter earlier this season.
For lefties, the A’s have journeymen Ryan Buchter (4.96 FIP, but a 2.98 ERA) and Jake Diekman (3.55 FIP, but a 4.65 ERA); plus rookies A.J. Puk (3.39 FIP) and Jesus Luzardo (2.63 FIP), who have a combined 23 and one-third innings under their belts.
Bassitt is probably only there in the event of extra innings. Fiers is probably only there in the event of even more extra innings. Beyond that, A’s manager Bob Melvin might use just about anyone.
The Starting Lineups
For the visiting Rays, with wRC+’s in parentheses:
1B: Yandy Díaz (116)
DH: Tommy Pham (121)
LF: Austin Meadows (142)
C: Travis d’Arnaud (98)
3B: Matt Duffy (88)
RF: Avisaíl García (112)
SS: Willy Adames (97)
CF: Kevin Kiermaier (78)
2B: Michael Brosseau (108)
The most notable name here as far as storylines go is Díaz, who missed the last two months with a broken foot and was reportedly not expected to play the field. Keep an eye on him.
Behind d’Arnaud, the Rays have Mike Zunino (45 wRC+), likely an only-in-case-of-emergency option to catch (though his defensive numbers, which include things like pitch-framing, are impressive). Ji-Man Choi (121) and Lowe (125) will probably find their way in for at least an at-bat each. Jesús Aguilar (88) and Daniel Robertson (71) are each having bad years after great ones in 2018, but that doesn’t mean they won’t see the field. Aguilar is a first baseman, and while Choi is too, Aguilar grades out better defensively, making him the more likely late-inning defensive replacement for Díaz. Robertson and Lowe are infielders, and while neither would be put in the game solely because of their defense, both could stay in if they were called upon in a favorable matchup at the plate (more likely with Lowe than Robertson, but one never knows with these games). Rounding out the lineup is Joey Wendle (71), who is also having a down year after previous offensive success but is fairly valuable defensively at second base. Aguilar, Wendle, and Zunino bat right-handed. The others are lefties. Wendle is the most notable threat on the bases of the group.
For the A’s:
SS: Marcus Semien (137)
RF: Ramón Laureano (126)
3B: Matt Chapman (125)
1B: Matt Olson (134)
CF: Mark Canha (146)
2B: Jurickson Profar (89)
DH: Khris Davis (81)
LF: Robbie Grossman (88)
C: Sean Murphy (135, but only 60 MLB PA’s—136 at AAA over 140 PA’s)
The front half of the Oakland lineup is ferocious. As a team, the A’s posted a 107 wRC+ in the regular season, fifth in baseball and notably better than the Rays’ 102, which was ninth. Between Semien and Chapman, who also grade out as elite defenders, they have two of the eleven best position players in the game by fWAR, and the Laureano/Olson/Canha combination is a strong compliment. Khris Davis’ down year hurts, but even he isn’t as bad a weak spot as other postseason teams are dealing with at the low points of their lineups.
Josh Phegley (82 wRC+) backs up Murphy behind the plate. Beyond him, the bench is Chad Pinder (87) and a trio of rookies: Seth Brown (120), Sheldon Neuse (63 wRC+ over 61 PA’s, but 126 wRC+ at AAA), and Franklin Barreto (-2 wRC+ over 58 PA’s, but 121 wRC+ at AAA). Brown is the only left-handed hitter on the bench. Barreto is the fastest, but Brown also has good speed.
Who Will Win
It’s a beautiful evening in Oakland, with the wind blowing straight out, as it pretty much always does there. The sun will set over the course of the game, so expect shadows to figure into the narrative. FanGraphs likes the Rays by the slimmest of margins, labeling them a 51.5% favorite. The oddsmakers, though, have the A’s as effectively a 55% favorite, after opening them a bit higher.
The total for the game is set at seven, which is a little low by my math and lower than it opened, indicating bettors expect both managers to use their bullpens aggressively and effectively. It isn’t low enough that I’d personally place money on the over, but the bottom line is that like last night, 4-3 is a reasonable score to expect.
The Rays are better on the mound. The A’s are better at the plate. The A’s are home. The Rays have more options on the bench. It’s a close game that probably does break slightly in Oakland’s direction. We’ll see.
