Mike Soroka didn’t make his season debut until April 18th. So while other aces are preparing for their 13th or 14th start of the season, Soroka is making only his ninth tonight. Which isn’t all that meaningful in and of itself, but has translated into Soroka currently sitting narrowly below the current innings threshold to be a “qualifying” pitcher for things like MLB’s ERA title. And that is meaningful, because were Soroka above the threshold, as he presumably soon will be, he’d be leading the ERA race by a decent margin.
Soroka’s ERA, through eight starts and over 50 innings, is a microscopic 1.07. The next-best, among actual qualifying starters, is Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 1.48. Behind Ryu, there’s another long drop (climb?) to Jake Odorizzi’s 2.16.
To be fair, Soroka’s FIP would only be the ninth-best among qualifying starters. And, to be fair, he’s had a favorable schedule, facing no team with a wRC+ in the MLB’s top twelve.
Still, he’s already achieved 1.4 fWAR, and fWAR is based on FIP, not ERA. bWAR, which uses ERA, measures his achievements at a lofty 2.3 wins above a replacement-level pitcher. Which, if you’re scoring at home, is just outside the MLB’s top ten for pitchers, despite the limited number of outings.
The lion’s share of season is yet to be played, and Soroka, as mentioned, has yet to face any particularly strong lineups. But, playing in the NL East, strong lineups are few and far between, with only the Mets above average as measured by wRC+, and even them by only 1%. Labeling Soroka a Cy Young contender would be outlandish, but it isn’t outlandish to say he’s in line to get some votes. And along with Chris Paddack and Peter Alonso—who have stolen more headlines, Fernando Tatis Jr.—who has the stronger pedigree, and Alex Verdugo—who plays on a better team, Soroka is an early contender to be named the National League’s Rookie of the Year.
To be fair, this isn’t entirely unexpected—FanGraphs had Soroka as the 36th-best prospect in baseball entering the season. And to be fair, he’s an unconventional prospect, throwing only in the low 90’s and pitching to contact. The average exit velocity and launch angle of his opposing hitters are both among the twenty lowest in the league among pitchers who’ve allowed 50 or more balls in play.
Still, the 21-year-old Calgarian hasn’t received the kind of attention you would expect to be paid to someone with a 1.07 ERA. In all likelihood, that will soon be changing.
Note from NIT Stu: Sing “My Sharona” to yourself but with “Mike Soroka” in there instead. Loads of fun.
