The Cubs finally scored some runs this past weekend, closing the season on a positive offensive note. The final tally saw only Ian Happ (131 wRC+) and Jason Heyward (130) with campaigns that can be legitimately called strong, though Willson Contreras (109) didn’t have a bad year. On the whole, the Cubs were 20th in runs scored (11th among playoff teams) and 21st in wRC+ (13th among playoff teams). Which means that against the Marlins starting pitchers for this series, all of whom finished the year with sub-4.00 FIP’s, the Cubs are either going to need to do more of what they did to the White Sox or get some great pitching themselves.
It’s worth noting that Sixto Sánchez and Sandy Alcantara only did what they did this season over seven starts apiece. Sánchez is a promising rookie, and Alcantara posted a 3.88 ERA over nearly 200 innings in 2019, but neither has posted a large enough sample size this season to be considered an ace (though both should be taken seriously). The Marlins also had one of the worst bullpens in the league over the regular season, with a sky-high 5.50 ERA and -1.4 fWAR.
In short, it’s not a bad draw for the Cubs, and the Kyle Hendricks/Yu Darvish combination is comparable to any 1-2 punch in the league. It’s a short series, with lots of leverage on small events in each game. But if there were a team in this year’s playoff field to play in such a series, it would be the Marlins.
We’ll see whether we regret saying that.
