We should have known it was going to be a weird day when David Bote sprained his ankle doing this:
Ugh. Things that happened, various thoughts:
- We’ve mentioned Bote’s terrible luck at the plate this year relative to what his contact quality should have produced, and it’s sad to see him miss more at-bats when he could have closed that gap. At the same time, though, are we sure he isn’t cursed? Is this a Jonah situation? Does he need to be thrown overboard?
- Patrick Wisdom, incredible day. Both no-doubters. 271 PA’s now, 2.2 fWAR, 132 wRC+. The strikeout rate is obscene (39.1%, highest among guys with at least 250 PA’s), but the ISO is outrageous (.308, fifth-best among guys with at least 250 PA’s) and the wRC+ is ahead of Kris Bryant’s, so if he can sustain it…? Now, he only has a .333 xwOBA. But that’s still above-average. And he’s playing for pennies. So maybe the question shouldn’t be whether Wisdom can anchor a lineup, but should be whether he can be one of those seven-hole boppers keeping a power threat in a lineup that could be turning more contact-oriented.
- Yasmani Grandal is so good. That’s not about the Cubs but the man is so, so good. Good for the White Sox to have him back. Nearly a .400 OBP, and his xwOBA’s actually higher than his wOBA, at a breathtaking .404. Not to mention he’s pretty damn helpful behind the plate, by FanGraphs’s measurement at least.
- Ian Happ’s double was a little opportunistic, but his home run was certainly legitimate and the guy is back above replacement-level, which feels good to see. 88 wRC+ on the season now as he crosses the 400-PA mark, 138 wRC+ over his last 110 PA’s. xwOBA and wOBA still fairly in-line over the season as a whole.
- Michael Hermosillo was a star, which is fun. Still getting numbers on Hermosillo (he only has 24 PA’s), but not a bad start.
- Frank Schwindel hit a few balls hard.
- Jason Heyward provided some life.
- On the pitching side, it was ugly. Keegan Thompson’s walks were the big issue for him—he wasn’t getting hit around too much, but the walks will kill you, and they did. Trevor Megill was the only one with an outing that could be described as competent, and he has a 7.63 FIP, making it not a particularly bright spot if not sustained.
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Draft Watch:
The Cubs passed the Nationals and the Twins and are back to sixth in the order.
The Diaspora:
Craig Kimbrel was on the receiving end of two of the home runs. Javy Báez homered. Jorge Soler hit a huge home run in an Atlanta comeback win over the Giants. Kris Bryant left that one early with right side tightness. Hopefully he’s alright.
Around the Division:
The Reds picked up Asdrúbal Cabrera off waivers from the Diamondbacks, adding a potentially solid bat against lefties to the bench assortment there. They’re still two games up on the Padres in the wild card chase.
Up Next:
Another one.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Chicago (AL)
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
The South Side
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing in from the right field corner at about ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Alec Mills vs. Lance Lynn
The Opponent:
Lynn is really good. That’s the long and short of anything I could say here.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +240 underdogs, with the Sox at -300, giving the Cubs an implied win probability around 27%. The over/under’s at 8½ and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
We’ll see what happens with Bote in terms of the injured list, we’ll see if Willson Contreras might return.
Cubs Thoughts:
I do like Alec Mills…
