We’re going to get a legitimately important update tomorrow when the first CFP Rankings of the year come out, but as we await that and look back on Week 9, here’s where the College Football Playoff picture stands:
As we’ve been citing these last few weeks, over the seven years of the playoff, the 28 teams have had the following résumés:
- Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team (11 out of 11 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five conference champion (14 out of 15 possible teams)
- One-loss Power Five not conference champion (3 out of 11* possible teams) [*2014 Baylor and 2014 TCU included in this bucket and not as conference champions because committee deemed them not conference champions]
Now, this doesn’t mean teams have to come from these buckets, or that teams will come from these buckets. Instead, it’s a statement of what’s been a proven playoff path, and an indicator of where the committee will look first for its teams before moving on to other pastures.
Which teams could still finish these paths? Here’s where we’re at:
Undefeated Power Five/Notre Dame team:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
One-loss Power Five conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Baylor
- Oklahoma State
One-loss Power Five not conference champion:
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Wake Forest
- Baylor
- Notre Dame
That’s just eleven teams with a conventional playoff path, with Iowa, Mississippi, Kentucky, and Pitt all bowing out over the weekend. Of those eleven, ten are in the most proven of buckets, with none of the losses suffered by the six one-loss Power Five teams with a conference title shot (i.e., the six that aren’t Notre Dame) as bad as the one Ohio State suffered to Purdue the year they went 12-1 and didn’t make the field. (Oregon’s loss at Stanford isn’t good, but it’s not a 29-point loss, and 2018 Purdue and 2021 Stanford aren’t equivalent but they aren’t so far apart as to make up for that 22-point differential difference. Also, Oregon has a great win that 2018 Ohio State team lacked, and there were four other teams in the first or second bucket that year, which meant one was getting left out regardless.) Given that, and given the softness of the bubble, it appears likely enough to call it certain that any Power Five champion with one or zero losses will make the field, with the lone possible exception being Wake Forest in a scenario in which they lose a bad one, still win the ACC, and a lot of other things break everyone else’s way (the highest-ranked team in the ACC’s ranked well behind Notre Dame…*looks at Cincinnati*). These are eleven important teams to watch.
There is, though, of course, another team of note, and we just mentioned them in that parenthetical. Cincinnati’s undefeated. Cincinnati won at Notre Dame. Cincinnati’s schedule has a week back end, but with no losses and one of the best wins in the country at the moment, it’s overly simplistic to say they don’t have a shot. Might the committee move the goalposts yet again? Yes. But they haven’t yet.
With that, then, we have the following breakdown in our Contenders/Factors dichotomy (contenders = teams it’s reasonable to think will make the playoff, factors = teams it’s reasonable to think could make the playoff):
Contenders: Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama
Alabama is the uncertain one here, but it’s still possible Alabama will enter the SEC Championship a favorite, and if any 11-2 team is going to make the field, it’s justifiably one from the SEC. These four have the highest probabilities, with Oklahoma holding a loss to give and Ohio State projecting to be at least a touchdown favorite in every game from here ‘til bowl season.
Factors: Cincinnati, Oregon, Michigan State
What does Cincinnati need to make the field? We just don’t know. We can’t call them a contender because we just don’t know. It’s probably something where the other potential fourth-best playoff option has two losses (and ideally is neither an SEC team nor a conference champion), but even that…we just don’t know. That could change tomorrow night, but even a high ranking doesn’t guarantee they won’t get passed, and potentially even rather arbitrarily passed, through some ACC-better-than-AAC strange logic.
For Oregon, it’s simple. Win out, they’re in, lose one, they’re probably not in. They’re currently projecting to be an underdog in Salt Lake City in three weeks, then an underdog again in the Pac-12 Championship, which appears likely to be a rematch of the game in Salt Lake City in three weeks.
For Michigan State, it’s in between. The Spartans have a loss to give, but it can’t come to Ohio State or they won’t make the Big Ten Championship. They could still make it at 11-1, but they’d need help, and they still have to host Penn State the week after playing in Columbus. Meanwhile, their current signature win’s opponent is Michigan, and Michigan could well end up 9-3.
Unlisted: Wake Forest, Michigan, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, UTSA
Wake Forest has yet to lose, but they’re an underdog this week and legitimately could be an underdog every week from here. It’s a great storyline, and they’re a ton of fun to watch, but the probability of them finishing 8-4 is higher than the probability of them finishing 13-0, and probably even 12-1.
Michigan, Baylor, and Oklahoma State all still have to play their conference’s power, and those two from the Big 12 would, in the best case, probably have to play Oklahoma twice.
Notre Dame doesn’t appear likely to have a ranked win when this is said and done, and they have no conference championship path, which in this case hurts them.
UTSA, our lone other undefeated team, would have a hard time getting selected over that 9-3 hypothetical Michigan we mentioned above. But, they’re undefeated, and they’re fun, so we’ll gladly keep talking about them. They’re playing for their own kind of championship, and we hope they win it.
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There are other teams we could mention. We’re getting close to listing teams with a shot at being a two-loss Power Five champion. But between the four contenders and Cincinnati, we have five obvious main characters, so we’re going to hold off, at least until we see the rankings tomorrow.
What happened this week:
Big Ten
Believe it or not, Michigan missed their chance, coughing up a 16-point second half lead on their big brother’s home field. The Wolverines aren’t technically done, but Michigan State is the winner, and they get the spoils, which in this case include a top-five ranking and quite possibly a world of attention when they play Ohio State around Thanksgiving. Could’ve been yours, Michigan. But you know that.
Speaking of Ohio State, Penn State hung with them in Columbus, deepening suspicion that the Buckeyes just aren’t that good. More to come.
Wisconsin beat up Iowa, the turnover fates turning their backs on their former chosen ones. Bucky retakes presumptive control of the West, and we probably don’t have to think about the Hawkeyes anymore outside of fervent Outback Bowl pondering (or wherever the sixth-best team in the Big Ten goes).
Finally, Purdue did beat Nebraska in Lincoln, further robbing us of having any reason to think Ohio State’s trip to play the Huskers next week is a trap game. Although maybe………..*tries so hard to stop oneself*
In addition to OSU/Nebraska, Michigan State plays at Purdue on Saturday as a tellingly narrow favorite.
SEC
Kentucky had a real shot at 11-1. They then lost by fourteen in Starkville. It was probably bound to happen, but it’s sad.
Mississippi had a real shot at 11-1, and a potent 11-1 at that. They lost by eleven at Auburn. A chance, missed.
Florida once played Alabama close, and they decidedly did not play Georgia close in their biggest game of the year, which was a laugher in Jacksonsville. It’s been a while since that Gators/Tide game, but it does make us ask the same question we just asked about Ohio State. Either way, Georgia’s good. Real good. Far and away the best team in the country, it seems.
Next week, Auburn plays in College Station in a big one. Alabama and Georgia host LSU and Mizzou, respectively. Tennessee/Kentucky should be fun. Mississippi State/Arkansas might be fun. Florida/South Carolina should not be fun.
ACC
Pitt was getting into sneakily promising territory, but they lost at home to Miami on Saturday, so that’s over with. Wake whooped up on Duke. Clemson struggled to put away Florida State. Pitt remains in charge of the Coastal, but Virginia, Virginia Tech, and the Hurricanes are all just one loss back now.
Wake gets a tough test in Chapel Hill on Saturday, playing as probable underdogs. Other games will likely be close as well, but we don’t list all the Group of Five games that are close, so we’re going to try to exercise some restraint here.
Big 12
Texas gave up another second-half lead, this time to Baylor, and this is a good time to note that the Bears do get Oklahoma at home in the regular season. They just already have that loss, though…
The Sooners beat up Texas Tech, bouncing back from whatever the hell that was in Lawrence. The Jayhawks lost by 52 to Oklahoma State, bouncing back from whatever the hell that was in Lawrence. Iowa State kicked itself hard in the nuts, losing at West Virginia by a touchdown. Kansas State beat TCU and I briefly talked myself into them making the conference championship earlier today so let’s get out of the Big 12 now, please.
Pac-12
Oregon did its thing against Colorado, which is to say it didn’t really do its thing and instead won convincingly. It was the Ducks’ first win by more than one touchdown since September.
In the South, Utah beat up UCLA while Arizona State somehow lost by 13 to Washington State at home. I don’t know how Utah lost to Oregon State. I don’t know how Utah lost to San Diego State. I don’t know what laws govern the Pac-12, but they are not the laws of nature.
Cincinnati & Friends
The Bearcats took down Tulane in New Orleans, drawing some criticism for only leading by two points at the half. Have you guys heard what Oklahoma did in Lawrence?
Notre Dame, Cincinnati’s translator at committee meetings, won an at-times tight one with UNC in South Bend. SMU, Cincinnati’s AAC drafting partner, lost to Houston, falling from the ranks of undefeateds but at least giving the league a third team in the AP Poll.
Cincinnati hosts Tulsa next week. Notre Dame hosts Navy. Houston’s at USF while SMU visits Memphis (Houston has one loss, it was to Texas Tech, it doesn’t look great that whichever of them and SMU loses twice to Cincy in Cincy’s ideal state will stay ranked).
The Rest
San Diego State lost to Fresno State, taking down our other Group of Five undefeated and setting Fresno State atop the Mountain West’s West division. BYU and Virginia lived up to the hype, combining for 115 points in Provo (BYU scored 66 of them). UTEP gave FAU its best, but couldn’t give us a one-combined-loss UTEP/UTSA this week (still, a two-combined-loss UTEP/UTSA isn’t bad). We’ve got midweek MACtion the next four weeks, so you have that to look forward to tomorrow. Nothing too noteworthy in the Sun Belt.
William & Mary upset Villanova, throwing a big wrinkle into the CAA race. Missouri State enlivened its playoff dream and may have ended North Dakota’s. Northern Iowa won the big showdown with Southern Illinois. North Dakota State held Indiana State to two points, which is less impressive than a shutout but more comical. Southeastern Louisiana held off McNeese. Pioneer League darling Davidson remained undefeated in league play.
In the Ivy League, Dartmouth won at Harvard, setting up what seems likely to be the effective league championship Friday night when they welcome Princeton to town. Jackson State keeps marching through the SWAC. South Carolina State’s closing in on the MEAC crown.
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Tomorrow’s rankings matter. But mostly just for Cincinnati. And Oregon, I guess. Mostly Cincinnati, though.
