Well, here it is. Defining moment time. Are you going to be the program that had a good year during the pandemic or the program that peaked as a Big 12 contender and is capable of back-to-back top-ten years?
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Whom:
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
When:
2:30 PM Cyclone Time
Where:
Jack Trice Stadium
Weather:
The rain should move out soon, and while we may get a freeze overnight, temperatures are forecast to be in the 50’s during the game, with partly cloudy skies. Wind blowing across the field at ten to fifteen miles per hour.
How to Watch:
FOX
The Opponent:
Oklahoma State’s undefeated, ranked eighth in the nation (only 32nd on Bill Connelly’s SP+, I believe), and coming off wins over Baylor (at home) and Texas (in Austin) sandwiching a week off. They’ve yet to win a game by more than eleven points, and they won their nonconference games (Missouri State, Tulsa, @ Boise State) by a combined 13, but the defense is good and the offense has done enough so far. Jaylen Warren had a huge week on the ground for the offense against Texas, so bottling him up’s a big deal, and something one would imagine Iowa State would do relatively well.
The Numbers:
The Cyclones are a 9.7-point favorite on SP+, but just a seven-point favorite in betting markets. The over/under’s at 47, so the expected final is 27-20.
What Iowa State Needs to Do:
Limit mistakes, score early. If you can put Oklahoma State in a big-enough hole that they feel the need to pass, you’re in a good position.
(Also…don’t win by more than 18.)
Other Games of Interest:
Oklahoma visits Kansas, Texas and Baylor are off. Texas Tech hosts Kansas State and TCU hosts West Virginia to round out Big 12 play. Iowa, still of some peripheral relevance in a few theoretical scenarios (e.g., New Year’s Six bowl implications by way of CFP Ranking implications), is idle.
Iowa State Thoughts:
If you lose this game, it’s hard to see a path to making the Big 12 Championship that doesn’t involve winning in Norman. You need this win.
If you can get it, the road doesn’t get easy, but it’s a lighter stretch of gauntlet before that OU game. The opportunity’s there to really turn this season around, and playing like the team did last week would be a great way to make it happen.
