With yesterday’s game rained out before we put any preview up, we didn’t get a chance to talk about Saturday, and, well, I don’t have a lot to say. The Cubs lost. It was noncompetitive. It was the kind of game you’ll see from a selling team on the decline side of selling (as opposed to the incline side, where you’re dealing one-off pieces and consolidating your core, a la the 2014 Cubs). It stunk.
The All-Star Break is here, and ninety games in, the Cubs are on pace to win 79 games, with FanGraphs projecting 80 wins to finish ten or eleven games back in the NL Central. That’s with current rosters, though, and the Cubs roster should get worse over the next few weeks as they sell assets.
There are, then, bigger stories than the current state of things, so let’s go through them here:
Jordan Wicks
The MLB Draft began last night, and with the Cubs’ first round pick, they took left-hander Jordan Wicks out of Kansas State. Wicks is what you’d expect from a college pitcher taken in the first round: experienced, great collegiate numbers. He turns 22 in September and could contribute as soon as 2023 (but don’t pencil him in that rotation yet, since if he does, one would imagine it wouldn’t be to start the year), and I’d imagine he’ll join the clump of Cubs around the edge of top-100-prospect lists, firmly behind Brennen Davis but right there with everyone else, including Reginald Preciado (part of the Yu Darvish return), Cristian Hernandez (the big international signing), Ed Howard (last year’s first round pick), Brailyn Márquez, Christopher Morel, and Miguel Amaya.
Brennen Davis
Speaking of Davis, he won the Futures Game MVP yesterday, smoking two home runs while fellow farmhand Manny Rodríguez threw gas in his appearance. Davis’s ETA is 2023, and he, like Wicks, is not quite 22. Entering the draft, he checked in at 26th on the FanGraphs top 100, which makes him one of the highest-ranked Cubs in recent memory (Ian Happ was 51st when he made the jump to the bigs). Rodríguez is not particularly highly ranked, but he could be contributing as soon as August at the big-league level and could be a good piece as soon as next year.
The Farm System
Overall, then, entering the Break, the biggest story is the farm system. It isn’t in great shape at the moment (just one prospect in the FanGraphs top 99—Preciado is 100th), but Wicks and other draft picks this week will bolster it, and the Cubs have the assets to acquire either a top-100 prospect or multiple depth prospects equal to a top-100 guy in value over the next few weeks. By nature, the average farm system should have prospects at roughly 15th, 45th, and 75th in the top 100, but of course, the top 100 isn’t the end-all-be-all of farm systems. You need depth, and even guys like Adbert Alzolay—who’s looking like a competent starter already and keeps improving—weren’t on the top 100 list at the time of their debut.
Back in the offseason, the system came in somewhere in the below-average range, but not among baseball’s worst. A reasonable hope is probably to get to average by the end of July, if not into the above-average tier, especially as teams with good prospects potentially sell them.
Even so, it’s hard to see the farm system growing strong enough over these few weeks to be expected to bear fruit in 2022. We might see Amaya, Morel, or Cole Roederer, but beyond them it’s mostly relief pitchers and hopefully the blossoming of one or more of Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Cory Abbott in the rotation.
Speaking of Steele…
He’s being stretched out to get second half starts, and his first start at Iowa went splendidly, as he contributed three and two-thirds innings in a seven-inning no-hitter. Five strikeouts, two walks, 56 pitches. Awesome stuff, and another reminder that you don’t need to be a top-100 guy to make an impact.
When will the Cubs be good again?
We’ve been building to this, I guess, and if I had to offer the most likely timeline, I’d offer this:
July:Craig Kimbrel is traded, Andrew Chafin is traded, Ryan Tepera is traded, Joc Pederson is traded, Jake Marisnick is traded, Zach Davies is traded, one of Kris Bryant or Javy Báez is probably traded. The Cubs get at least one top-100 prospect in their collective returns.
Offseason:The Cubs extend Anthony Rizzo and Báez, if he wasn’t traded. If Bryant wasn’t traded, he does sign elsewhere, but the Cubs get a draft pick out of the deal. The new collective bargaining agreement doesn’t significantly affect the Cubs in the short term, as they aren’t particularly reliant on young talent that’s already in the bigs. There are a few medium free agent signings, but nothing splashy, and the Cubs enter 2022 with either half or three quarters of the core four (Willson Contreras is in there in addition to Rizzo, Báez, and Bryant) and about a 15% chance of winning the division, with the Brewers’ rotation still obscene and the rest of their roster still flawed, with the Cardinals better in the press than on paper, and with the Reds still in purgatory while the Pirates continue rebuilding but get more competitive.
2022:Maybe one major prospect debut, but more notably, sellers again at the deadline unless the Brewers and Cardinals both really flop.
2022-23 Offseason:Contreras is extended, some more competitive retooling is done: The Cubs move on from some of the stalwarts from the last few years and make perhaps one sizable free agent signing.
2023: Some bigger prospect debuts, a more competitive team that buys at the deadline and competes for a wildcard spot at the very least.
2023-24 Offseason: Arms race.
2024: More debuts, contention.
This is kind of a median timeline—the non-extreme expectation. The rebuild could go badly. Some do. The rebuild could go quickly, short-circuiting in a good way and equipping the Cubs to compete for the pennant next fall. But this seems like the most likely situation.
Willson Contreras’s Comments
In the meantime, there are headlines going to Contreras’s comments that the Cubs were distracted and not playing hard on Saturday night, something that appears entirely true and caused a little stir but not a big one. David Ross, for example, said he wished Contreras hadn’t said that publicly, but it doesn’t sound like anyone’s all that upset about Contreras pointing out the obvious.
Contreras plays hard. Always. He’s a 100%-all-the-time guy. This seems unusual on the Cubs, whether due to the makeup of some of their core or the lingering effects of that core coming up under Joe Maddon, who was not a huge grit guy philosophically. Sometimes, this is great: One would argue it was hugely helpful in 2015-17 as the team didn’t press and always stayed confident on their arc from flourishing upstarts to The Best Team in Baseball to The Best Team in the Division Struggling at the Break. Sometimes, though, it’s been bad. In 2018, the team spent what felt like weeks complaining about a trip to Washington for a rain makeup before getting caught by a red-hot Brewers team down the stretch. In 2019, the team wilted late (though credit to Anthony Rizzo, who played heroically on an IL-worthy ankle). In 2020, the team rolled over against the Marlins, and this year, they’re rolling over again.
Overall, you probably want at least one Contreras on your team, and you probably want some guys more of Maddon’s philosophy, and you want to ride that rail between not pressing and digging deep when you have to in order to win games you need to win.
I’ve been high on the prospect of trading Contreras at the deadline, but not at all because of stuff like this. I think he’s a hugely valuable player, that Amaya is projecting to be competent, and that you aren’t going to contend before he hits free agency so it might be worth it to send him to Boston or Houston or St. Petersburg or the Bronx or the South Side or even Queens if you can get a great return. I love the guy, I think he’s a great player, and I think the Cubs should consider trading him. We’ll see what they do.
The Rest of the Season
Back to the median idea, I think you can expect a roster something like this for August and September:
C: Contreras
1B: Rizzo
2B: Nico Hoerner
SS: Báez
3B: Patrick Wisdom
LF: David Bote
CF: Rafael Ortega
RF: Jason Heyward
Bench (C): Robinson Chirinos
Bench: Ian Happ
Bench: Sergio Alcántara
Bench: Matt Duffy
Bench: Eric Sogard
Starting Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
Starting Pitcher: Alzolay
Starting Pitcher: Alec Mills
Starting Pitcher: Trevor Williams
Starting Pitcher: Thompson/Steele/Abbott/Kohl Stewart
Bullpen: Thompson/Steele/Abbott/Stewart
Bullpen: Thompson/Steele/Abbott/Stewart
Bullpen: Thompson/Steele/Abbott/Stewart
Bullpen: Adam Morgan
Bullpen: Kyle Ryan
Bullpen: Manny Rodríguez
Bullpen: Brad Wieck
Bullpen: Dillon Maples
Roster-Fillers: Tommy Nance, Trevor Megill
Debutants: Márquez (again), Amaya, probably not Morel but maybe
In this scenario, nine players are traded (Rex Brothers and Dan Winkler are dealt in addition to the guys listed above minus Báez and Contreras), which is maybe too many, but at the same time, each of the nine is an asset for which the Cubs could draw some value. As far as rosters go, it’s a mediocre lineup, a bad rotation, and a mediocre-to-bad bullpen. That’s probably where we’re headed for August and September, and we’ll see where 2022 goes but honestly, don’t expect anything too different.
In the immediate sense, Kimbrel and Bryant are All-Stars and there’s a series with the Diamondbacks next weekend in Arizona. The Cubs are going Hendricks/Alzolay/Davies in it, and while they should really only be expected to win two games, a sweep is likely enough to be desired. If the Brewers get swept by the Reds and then flop against the Royals and get crushed by the White Sox while the Reds get smacked by the Mets and Cardinals and the Cubs dominate the Cardinals and then dominate the Diamondbacks again, all of this will be rendered irrelevant, because the Cubs will enter the week of the deadline in first place. Extraordinarily unlikely, and a trade might come first, but if you want to keep that little piece of hope in your mind, keep it. Willson Contreras will do his part.
