Nico Hoerner left yesterday’s rehab assignment with “increased tension” in his oblique.
Not great.
Hoerner is a big part of the hopefulness for the Cubs’ rebuild. A stellar defensive shortstop, he was breaking out offensively before a string of injuries left him, well, here, with just 152 plate appearances to his name hardly more than a month away from season’s end.
The guy hit well in the minors. This shouldn’t be understated. He rocketed up to AA and managed a 117 wRC+ there over 294 plate appearances. But in the majors, he has only a 90 career wRC+ over 360 PA’s. His best year, this year, has come on the back of a .314 xwOBA that’s on the wrong side of the normal league average. He lacks power, which is ok, and which has some high on him as Major League Baseball considers introducing contact-encouraging rule changes, but that isn’t saving him. Basically, there’s some doubt about Hoerner’s ability to produce offensively, and that’s before we get into this run of injuries and the questions they present, just questions (but still questions), about his durability.
Hoerner is not Nick Madrigal. Madrigal was a more highly rated prospect and through a similar quantity of plate appearances has a wRC+ 24 percentage points better than his projected middle infield companion—114 vs. 90. He’s also a high-contact guy, and he also has some concerning injury history now, but he’s more likely to be a stud than Hoerner because, well, he’s been better so far. Now, to make this really depressing, Madrigal’s career xwOBA is somewhere slightly below .300, so maybe we shouldn’t be so high on either of them. But Madrigal is the better of the two, from what we know.
This all brings up a troubling possibility for the Chicago Cubs, which is the possibility that one or both of Hoerner and Madrigal will not be able to produce at the plate. A lot of the thought that the Cubs could contend in 2023 or sneak in a backdoor playoff appearance next year relies on these guys producing. If they don’t, or if even just one doesn’t, it could be an expensive problem requiring a free agency solution, or it could be a long wait for the next crop of middle infield prospects to emerge (Cristian Hernandez and Ed Howard are each probably at least three years away and far from sure things, even if their upside is probably higher than that of Hoerner).
In other news from yesterday, Alec Mills struck out five, walked none, and somehow gave up six earned runs despite also not allowing a home run. He did allow four balls to be hit 100 mph or harder, but based on launch angle and exit velocity you’d only have expected two of those to be hits. It was one of those days, and yes, some pitchers are good enough to not have “one of those days,” but no one said Mills was at that level. He’ll have one of those days here and there. He’s still been the best pitcher this year in the Cubs’ current rotation.
Finally, another solid day from Ian Happ, who has a 107 wRC+ over the last four weeks, and another solid day from Frank Schwindel, who’s now at a 151 wRC+ over 95 PA’s. Michael Hermosillo pinch hit and hit the ball hard. He’s only got eleven PA’s, but for some perspective on the beginning of his Cubs tenure, his xwOBA’s .359 and his wOBA’s .249, so we’re a stroke of luck here or there from being over the moon about Michael Hermosillo through, again, an extremely small sample.
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Draft Watch:
The Cubs exit the weekend sixth in the draft order, two and a half away from the Marlins for fifth and within a game of both the Nationals and the Twins for seventh and eighth.
The Diaspora:
Javy Báez returned yesterday, doubling twice and working some baserunning magic as the Mets avoided a sweep in Los Angeles. Jorge Soler homered for Atlanta in their win over Baltimore.
Around the Division:
The Reds moved a game ahead of the Padres, winning while their counterparts lost. Cincinnati is now favored over the field to get the NL’s last playoff spot, checking in at 64.4% on FanGraphs (oversimplifying here because there’s a chance of division leadership changes, but the Padres are at 25.8%, the Cardinals are at 4.1%, the NL East takes up the rest).
Adrian Houser returned yesterday from the Covid IL. The Pirates have placed Gregory Polanco on waivers. The Cardinals activated Kwang Hyun Kim, but he’ll be in the bullpen after missing two weeks.
Up Next:
A three-game set with the Rockies, who enter the week four games off the Cubs draft pace.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Colorado
When:
7:05 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Wrigley Field
Weather:
Temperatures in the 80’s, wind blowing out to left at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks vs. Antonio Senzatela
The Opponent:
We probably talked about this a few weeks ago, but Senzatela is having a breakout year. After a terrible 2019, in which he was unlucky (6.71 ERA) but also bad (5.97 xERA, 5.44 FIP), he’s turned things around dramatically, with a 4.05 FIP over 2020 and ’21 combined. His xERA’s been higher—4.64, I believe— but that’s still solid, and the righty’s only 26.
Overall, the Rockies enter in fairly good health. They’re not a good team, but they’re better than the Cubs on paper and they’ve been playing significantly better than their hosts of late.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are -130 underdogs, with their guests at +110 for an implied Chicago win probability of about 54%. The over/under’s at nine and leans towards the under.
Cubs News:
Nothing too major as of right now. One merciful note is that the Cubs play just 36 more games, tied for the second-fewest remaining in the league.
Cubs Thoughts:
Kyle Hendricks is having a concerning year. Strikeouts are down. Walks are up. Home runs are way up. A good outing for him probably looks something like 6 IP, 4 K, 1 BB, 0 HR. Hopefully we get that this evening.
