I’ve taken, lately, to opening blank pages of discarded notebooks and scrawling out potential positional alignments for the 2022 Cubs. It’s a harmless hobby. Harmless, ok?!
Anyway, I often get hesitant when putting both Patrick Wisdom and Rafael Ortega down there, on paper, and adding Frank Schwindel further sobers me. But I had a thought this morning, and that’s that if the goal is to find a Max Muncy/Justin Turner-style late bloomer, you’re going to have to play the lottery a bit, so especially in a year in which the Cubs will probably be contention-curious at best (i.e., aiming for an 85-win roster that opens the option of a trade deadline push if feasible while still targeting 2023 as the beginning of the next contention window), it might make sense to give all three a full season of run and see what happens.
On that note, here are some offensive stats for the nine position players I’d guess the Cubs, if forced to choose today, would commit to putting on next year’s Opening Day roster:
| Player | 2022 Opening Day Age | 2021 wRC+ | 2021 wOBA | 2021 xwOBA | 2021 PA’s | Career wRC+ | Career wOBA | Career PA’s |
| Patrick Wisdom | 30 | 129 | 0.366 | 0.322 | 233 | 118 | 0.349 | 321 |
| Willson Contreras | 29 | 105 | 0.328 | 0.335 | 403 | 114 | 0.345 | 2,292 |
| Nick Madrigal | 25 | 115 | 0.336 | 0.286 | 215 | 114 | 0.335 | 324 |
| Frank Schwindel | 29 | 152 | 0.399 | 0.335 | 69 | 110 | 0.338 | 84 |
| Jason Heyward | 32 | 63 | 0.263 | 0.28 | 288 | 106 | 0.329 | 6,049 |
| Ian Happ | 27 | 69 | 0.273 | 0.285 | 368 | 105 | 0.331 | 1,630 |
| David Bote | 28 | 66 | 0.268 | 0.327 | 238 | 92 | 0.31 | 949 |
| Nico Hoerner | 24 | 113 | 0.341 | 0.314 | 152 | 89 | 0.306 | 360 |
| Rafael Ortega | 30 | 139 | 0.381 | 0.343 | 171 | 81 | 0.292 | 618 |
I’ve sorted this by career wRC+ because I couldn’t think of what else to sort it by. Things that jump out include how few PA’s Schwindel and Hoerner have had this year, Hoerner’s xwOBA/wOBA split, Bote’s low career wRC+, Heyward’s early years being good enough to make him an above-average hitter on the career, and how good Patrick Wisdom’s season has been (also, he’s up to 233 PA’s now, which is getting to be quite a few).
I’m not sure this list could match its combined career wRC+ next year, but only Heyward will have begun the aging process, and it’s possible overperformance relative to career numbers from, say, Ortega, could cancel out Heyward’s underperformance. The career average wRC+ for the group is 103. The 2021 average wRC+ for the group is 106 (not the same as the group’s total, which is more like 97—.315 combined wOBA and .311 combined xwOBA, I believe). Both of those numbers are pretty good for a team as a whole, so if you put a lot of these guys in platoons, you could conceivably have all nine and a competent offense with four free agent acquisitions who need to be, on the aggregate, a bit better than league-average at the plate.
For whatever it’s worth.
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Alec Mills was wonderful again yesterday. He’s now got a 4.55 xERA and 4.18 FIP over 77.1 IP, with a 3.42 FIP since joining the rotation full time and a 4.46 career FIP. There is a non-zero chance that Alec Mills is the Cubs’ best starter next year. He might be the best Cubs starter right now, honestly.
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Only one other note up here, and it concerns the farm system after Brett Taylor gave a good rundown of various evaluations of it this morning over at Bleacher Nation: Using the FanGraphs valuation structure for prospects, the trio of Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, and Reginald Preciado is as valuable combined as the next 23 prospects in the Cubs’ system, a list that ranges from Cristian Hernandez to Riley Thompson and includes, again, nearly a full roster of baseball players.
The Cubs need top guys to pan out.
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Draft Pick Watch:
The Cubs are still eighth in the draft order, percentage points off of the Marlins and a game off of the Nationals and Twins.
The Diaspora:
Kyle Schwarber doubled twice for the Red Sox. Jake Arrieta has signed with the Padres and is expected to start on Wednesday. Remember: The Padres have Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack, and Ryan Weathers all under contract. Four of those men are injured. The Cubs’ injuries this year were scant.
Around the Division:
The Reds and Cardinals both won, putting the Cardinals ahead of the Phillies in the wild card race. Jesse Winker is going on the IL with an intercostal strain. Eric Lauer is back from the Covid list for the Brewers. The Pirates DFA’d Ka’ai Tom.
Up Next:
Three in Cincinnati.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
6:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Great American Ball Park
Weather:
Temperature in the 70’s, wind blowing in at about five miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Justin Steele vs. Wade Miley
The Opponent:
How did the no-hitters stop? Was it the sticky stuff checks? Anyway, Miley’s having a career year. 4.07 xERA, 3.67 FIP, 2.6 fWAR. Good for him.
As a whole, the Reds are without Winker, and then they’re without some relievers as well. Fairly healthy now that they’ve got Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos back, and they’re not pounding on the Padres’ bumper but they’re up to 35% likely to make the playoffs (where they would face the Dodgers or Giants in a single-elimination game on the road).
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +185 underdogs, with the Reds at -205 for an implied Cubs win probability of about 33%. Over/under’s at 9½ and favors the under.
Cubs News:
Justin Steele’s second career start, guys.
Cubs Thoughts:
Hopefully Steele can turn the strikeouts up a bit after pitching to so much contact against the Brewers. Over six innings, you’d like to see him strike out six, walk two, and allow maybe three runs, ideally without a home run involved. That’d be a phenomenal start, though, so don’t set expectations too high. Showing he can compete as a starter is the biggest thing.
