I think probabilistically, but only part of the time. The wrong part of the time. When watching a game, win probability can take over, leeching the fun out of sports. When looking ahead and making decisions, the best possible outcome can crowd out the rest of my vision, creating unreasonable expectations. I would like to flip these thought patterns. But for now, I am attached to the entirely unreasonable idea of picking a perfect bracket.
Let’s begin.
We’ll go through the NCAA Tournament first, then the NIT. I’m trying to sum up each pick in a sentence or two, but for some, I’m sure I’ll ramble. If I run short on time, this is going to get hectic at the end and riddled with typos. Setting that expectation now. Hopefully my thoughts, established early, can illustrate some of my late-bracket thinking.
First Four
- Alabama State over Saint Francis
In the interests of integrity, I do try to pick the First Four. With the 16-seeds, I’m going with the kenpom favorite, especially since I don’t know of any injuries off the top of my head.
- North Carolina over San Diego State
I buy the theory that the Mountain West underperforms in the postseason, by which I really mean that I liked that Ken Pomeroy Substack post about how certain conferences perform strongly in November and December and become overrated as a result. I wrote about this a couple weeks ago, applying some strains of Pomeroy’s SEC thinking to the Mountain West. I know Magoon Gwath is back, and I’m not too worried about it. He makes the Aztecs better defensively, but not by enough to make up the gap. (And he hasn’t been out so long that his performance is entirely gone from models like kenpom.)
- American over Mount St. Mary’s
Mount St. Mary’s is the one 16-seed I know is a little banged up, so again, with kenpom favoring the Eagles, no reason to deviate from that.
- Xavier over Texas
Here’s the first spot it gets tricky. Xavier and Texas are next to one another in kenpom. But between Xavier presumably turning out in nearby Dayton and Nate Silver’s model favoring the Musketeers (Silver has talked about making good money off March Madness last year, and we’ve always found his claims perfectly trustworthy), it clears up pretty quickly. Our one rule about Texas is that you get the opposite of what you expect. Maybe we’re making too little of that here, and maybe we’re making too little of Chendall Weaver’s return. We’ll revisit the spread tomorrow. But Xavier’s a better bet than Rodney Terry in a single-elimination setting.
South Region
I regretfully just learned that the bracket I printed doesn’t include the region names, the gametimes, or the game sites. Why did the NCAA’s website do this to me? Thankfully I’ve spent way too much time internalizing bracketology rules in my own head, and in addition to building quite the college basketball algorithm, Ken Pomeroy built the best website in the world in terms of user experience. People go to bootcamps for this stuff. Pomeroy did it when he was still primarily a weatherman.
- Auburn over Alabama State
No especially large concerns here. Not in the first round.
- Louisville over Creighton
Louisville doesn’t use much bench, but they’re deep enough to get through a game even if Reyne Smith does come up lame. Creighton’s really easy to like—they have a number of exceedingly trustworthy guys—but I think that gives us an advantage on the Cards, who are playing in Lexington and are probably the better team.
- Michigan over UC San Diego
This is late and it’s at altitude, but I’m a little wary of the Big West. It’s a good league, and given the composition of some of these teams it does make sense for it to peak this season. Still, its great November and December give me pause. You don’t need to call Dusty May a March wizard (he’s a good coach, but March wizards are rare) to think he’ll have enough options to handle a scenario where the two seven-footers aren’t working. It stinks, because UCSD is a really fun watch, but I do think Michigan wins this, and I don’t think there’s enough uniqueness upside (in pools with people who don’t follow college basketball) to justify the zig.
- Yale over Texas A&M
Remember that kenpom Substack piece from above? We applied it to the Mountain West, but it was about the SEC. I do think Yale might be popular, since Texas A&M’s not a big basketball brand and Yale’s been known to win games in this tournament, but Yale’s been known to do that because Yale’s been good. The Ivy League was surprisingly thin this year. Maybe that’s not exactly true, and is partly a reflection of Yale dominating it and driving others down.
I also don’t think A&M’s guards are as good as their best performances imply.
- North Carolina over Mississippi
If North Carolina does beat SDSU, the average outcome is a win in the higher single digits. If SDSU beats North Carolina, we’ll have reason to believe SDSU’s for real. (And they’re the one MWC team that doesn’t fit the altitude explanation.) We really like UNC to beat SDSU, but we also think Mississippi’s vulnerable. They’re capable of playing bad basketball. For all UNC’s faults, the Tar Heels’ general performance is pretty good.
- Iowa State over Lipscomb
As an Iowa State fan, I’m concerned about Tamin Lipsey’s groin and unhappy about missing Keshon Gilbert. The comforting thought is that ISU should be able to hit Lipscomb hard in the paint, and that Lipscomb looked rattled by Queens’s pressure in the ASUN semifinals.
- Marquette over New Mexico
Don’t trust the Mountain West and don’t buy into narratives that some coaches are particularly good or bad during March. Kenpom’s already lower on Marquette than the AP Poll. Knowing Marquette’s a little publicly overrated doesn’t mean you have to pick against them.
- Michigan State over Bryant
Bryant’s an unusual team, long and fast and much more talented than a lot of people have put together. Michigan State really overperformed preseason expectations, which is great but can be a red flag. We’re not going to pick the Bulldogs here, but we don’t particularly trust MSU. Put a pin in that.
- Auburn over Louisville
The SEC is probably overrated, the ACC is probably underrated, and Louisville could very well win this game. I just don’t know which Cardinal can slow down even a banged-up Johni Broome. With Reyne Smith banged up as well and no trust for Michigan or Yale (or UC San Diego or Texas A&M), I’m not going to outsmart myself yet.
- Michigan over Yale
The Danny Wolf bowl. A&M’s obviously the most likely team to advance from this pod, and I don’t think they’ll be over-picked, but I could see Michigan being underpicked.
- Iowa State over North Carolina
Even without Gilbert, the Cyclones should be the better team.
- Marquette over Michigan State
Here’s a question: Is the Big East undervalued again? UConn’s been unexpectedly dominant each of the last two Marches (and yes, unexpectedly). Seton Hall surprised by winning last year’s NIT. We’re more confident in the ACC being undervalued than the Big East, but there’s Big East precedent. Since we trust none of these teams and are probably on our way to sending Auburn to the Final Four by default, we might as well take a little shot at value here.
- Auburn over Michigan
Auburn got a tough draw in the second round but gets a good draw in the Sweet Sixteen. Texas A&M, Michigan, and UC San Diego are all solid, but none is a top-16 kenpom team. We do care about path. Path is something we care about.
- Iowa State over Marquette
To be clear, low trust in Iowa State without Gilbert, and this is a little bit of a homer pick. But while I could see Marquette going on a deep run, I don’t exactly expect that.
- Auburn over Iowa State
I’m not sending the short-handed Cyclones to the Final Four, even if I do think the SEC’s overvalued.
West Region
- Florida over Norfolk State
Norfolk State’s the best 16-seed, and I’m skeptical of the Gators continuing to play this well, but they could recede a long way before I gave this any extra thought.
- UConn over Oklahoma
UConn’s the better team, this is nowhere close to Norman, and we think the Big East is underrated while the SEC is overrated. Popular pick for a bad reason, but should still be popular.
- Colorado State over Memphis
Colorado State is a Mountain West team and is riding really high, two things which make us skeptical. (We don’t trust teams to continue outrageously hot play.) But Memphis is nearly a kenpom underdog, this game is in Seattle, and Tyrese Hunter was on crutches this weekend. Plus, why would we want to cheer against Nique Clifford?
- Maryland over Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon kind of underachieved this year and Maryland kind of overachieved, but why pick against a team this good with a path this good?
- Drake over Missouri
My initial inclination was to pick Missouri here easily. Missouri is such a prime team to get upset (overachieved, SEC, Mark Mitchell’s banged up, some ratings much lower on them than kenpom), but Drake’s going to justifiably be a popular pick, all while Ben McCollum’s taking a premature media victory lap. Looking at betting markets, though, it seems people are really high on the Tigers. That gives me enough pause to ride with the Bulldogs.
- Texas Tech over UNC Wilmington
I’m worried about Texas Tech’s health, but they are a very, very good team. Good players, good coach, good ballclub all around. And there’s nothing that really sings to me about UNCW, who put up some big numbers in certain areas but did it against the CAA and a weak nonconference slate.
- Kansas over Arkansas
No need to overthink this.
- St. John’s over Omaha
I don’t think St. John’s is upset-proof, and Omaha can play a variety of kinds of game. But again, nothing to get too excited over with the Mavericks, besides how darn fun they are.
- Florida over UConn
I want to take UConn here, because I think the Florida hype is getting too big, but I think that hype’s more limited than I realize. They’re not a big enough basketball brand to draw that kind of hype, and UConn stands to be way too popular.
- Maryland over Colorado State
Only mild concerns here for the Terps. I don’t trust them, but I think they’ll be fine.
- Texas Tech over Drake
Drake wins games by wanting balls more than their opponents. Texas Tech is too athletic and physical to let that matter too much. Also, again, Texas Tech is really good. The only question is their health.
- Kansas over St. John’s
Who’s more underrated: The Big 12 or the Big East? To be honest, I don’t know what I’d say. I don’t think Bill Self’s completely lost it, though. I don’t think people realize how good Hunter Dickinson still is. These guys are one of three teams who beat Duke. St. John’s is getting all the love in the world.
- Florida over Maryland
Our concerns about Florida (potentially have overachieved, conference might be overrated) are bigger than our concerns about Maryland (potentially have overachieved), but Florida has a lot of room to give on those fronts. Absurd that we’re trying to pick against the SEC and we have one team in the Final Four and another in the Elite Eight, but that’s where we’re at.
- Texas Tech over Kansas
Even preseason, Tech graded out comparably to Kansas. The talent is there in Lubbock, and…
- Texas Tech over Florida
…if they’ve gotten this far, we start trusting the health.
East Region
- Duke over American
Duke’s really good.
- Baylor over Mississippi State
Mississippi State might be undervalued by bracket pools here, because Baylor’s won a title so recently and Baylor has some injury concerns. Kenpom and Silver both favor the Bears, though, and Silver’s got a big injury adjustment in there for the green team.
- Oregon over Liberty
It’s easy to see Liberty winning this one, but having been burned a lot by the Flames earlier this winter, I don’t trust them. Oregon had one rough stretch and it included some close losses. They’re a solid team who ended the season rated about where they started it.
- Arizona over Akron
I love watching Akron, but I don’t know that their style is very conducive to upsets. The results have mostly borne that out.
- VCU over BYU
The A-10 is weirdly shaped, but it isn’t bad. VCU is good. Max Shulga is one of the best players in the country. We’re not out on BYU, but we like VCU a lot.
- Wisconsin over Montana
Montana is a good shooting team. I still think Wisconsin will be fine. They got better offensively, yes. That doesn’t mean they got worse on defense.
- Saint Mary’s over Vanderbilt
Great season by Vanderbilt, who’s headed in the right direction.
- Alabama over Robert Morris
I won’t force myself into taking someone from the 14 or 15-line. If I was going to, I would have taken Bryant.
- Duke over Baylor
Duke is really good. I think we’re underrating the Cooper Flagg injury, but Duke is really good, and we’re probably underrating the ACC.
- Arizona over Oregon
Fun matchup here with the old Pac-12 angle and Tommy Lloyd back in the Northwest. Arizona’s a good amount better than the Ducks.
- Wisconsin over VCU
I want to take VCU here, because I don’t think Wisconsin’s raw talent is impressive enough to make them as big a favorite as they’ll be, but I don’t trust Alabama enough to not want Wisconsin around in the Sweet Sixteen.
- Alabama over Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s beat up on some poor competition in the WCC.
- Duke over Arizona
It would be so funny if Caleb Love beat Duke again, but Duke has a history of overplaying ankle injuries lately, and I need some way of acknowledging that I think the ACC is really good.
- Wisconsin over Alabama
Just keep your composure, Badgers.
- Duke over Wisconsin
I don’t think the Badgers have this in them.
Midwest Region
- Houston over SIU Edwardsville
Really like the Coogs.
- Gonzaga over Georgia
Kenpom might be too high on Gonzaga, but this is a mismatch on paper and we don’t trust the SEC.
- Clemson over McNeese
My concern here is that Clemson might be distracted, with Brad Brownell a possible name at Indiana. They haven’t really played like it, though, and it’s not like McNeese doesn’t have the exact same concern.
- High Point over Purdue
I’m probably forcing this one, but it’s conceivable and I like the value on Clemson in the next round anyway. It would be funny if after last year, Purdue returned to losing to huge underdogs.
- Xavier over Illinois
Final answer on who’s underrated: ACC, then Big East, then Big 12. Who’s overrated? SEC, then maybe the WCC, then maybe the Big Ten. Bottom line is I think the Big East does well again this year.
- Troy over Kentucky
I might be forcing this one too, but for as much as I like Mark Pope, Scott Cross is an awesome coach and I’d add the Sun Belt to the underrated list above. They had a bad November and December and might have a lot of good teams.
- UCLA over Utah State
Mountain West. Utah State’s traveling East too.
- Tennessee over Wofford
I’ve mentioned this in the bets, but I’m very high on Tennessee right now. I think this is their best team of the last few years. That’s a little canceled out by SEC concerns, but I like the Vols.
- Houston over Gonzaga
I love kenpom and I’m also not convinced Gonzaga’s a top-ten team.
- Clemson over High Point
The ACC’s underrated. That angle.
- Troy over Xavier
Why not, since I already grabbed Xavier to win two games. (And if it’s Texas, I can’t be picking them here.)
- Tennessee over UCLA
UCLA could pull this off, but if there’s one SEC team I think could be undervalued, it’s Tennessee, and I think SEC fatigue from people with Auburn and Florida both in the Final Four could lead them to get loose with this corner, especially picking it late in the process because it’s the bottom right.
- Houston over Clemson
Clemson’s pretty scary here, but Houston’s probably the second-best team in the country.
- Tennessee over Troy
Not going this crazy.
- Houston over Tennessee
No love for the SEC.
Final Four
- Texas Tech over Auburn
I’m still high on Texas Tech. Auburn is very good, but I view this as something of a toss-up, and I think the Texas Tech value’s outrageous. Pick Auburn against Duke or Houston and I’m dependent on the early rounds to win a pool. Get Texas Tech in the championship and get the Duke/Houston pick right, and I probably win.
- Duke over Houston
I love Kelvin Sampson, I love this Houston team, and I think the J’Wan Roberts injury isn’t that big a deal. But if Houston plays Duke, I think we all know how it’s going to be reffed, and Duke’s better enough to make up for any composure disadvantage stemming from Flagg’s youth.
- Duke over Texas Tech
I’d probably bet the Texas Tech moneyline here, but I don’t like Tech enough to pick them to win it all.
NIT
I need to fly through this. Running behind today.
- SMU over UNI
- Oklahoma State over Wichita State
- Arkansas State over Saint Louis
- North Texas over Furman
The better teams to win, all playing at home.
- SMU over Oklahoma State
- Arkansas State over North Texas
Let’s ride with the undervalued Sun Belt idea.
- SMU over Arkansas State
Let’s ride with the best team in the field being from a conference we think is underrated.
- UC Irvine over Northern Colorado
- Georgia Tech over Jacksonville State
- Saint Joseph’s over UAB
- Santa Clara over UC Riverside
More chalk, which isn’t likely to actually happen, because lines are close and this is the NIT. But UAB’s the really tempting one here, and I think it’s easy to overvalue UAB because of how fun they are.
- UC Irvine over Georgia Tech
- Saint Joseph’s over Santa Clara
The problem with the ACC thing and Georgia Tech is that Georgia Tech needs more than a couple points here. I do kind of like the WCC overrated theory, though? Stemming from Gonzaga’s kenpom position? Just a theory. I do really like the WCC’s teams.
- Saint Joseph’s over UC Irvine
Saint Joe’s is, per kenpom, the eighth-best team in this tournament, but they’re very close to the top five. I think they’re easy to sleep on.
- Dayton over FAU
- MTSU over Chattanooga
- North Alabama over Bradley
- George Mason over Samford
More chalk, with UNA over Bradley the lone exception. I have questions about Bradley’s psyche with the opt-outs and opt-in. UNA’s coming to play.
- Dayton over MTSU
- George Mason over North Alabama
Not pushing it here, even with questions about Dayton’s gym being available this weekend. (I forget what the conflict was there a couple years back.)
- Dayton over George Mason
I think Dayton shows up for this, and I think Dayton’s the better team, and I’ve been told by a great source (Pomeroy) that inconsistency does not predict future inconsistency.
- San Francisco over Utah Valley
- Loyola Chicago over San Jose State
- St. Bonaventure over Kent State
- Stanford over CSUN
We’ll take the road favorites in the Ramblers.
- San Francisco over Loyola Chicago
- Stanford over St. Bonaventure
The ACC is underrated theory… (and the WCC isn’t that overrated)
- Stanford over San Francisco
ACC vs. WCC.
- SMU over Saint Joseph’s
- Dayton over Stanford
I think Saint Joe’s travels decently but I don’t think it matters. I think Dayton travels well and it doesn’t hurt.
- SMU over Dayton
I’ll take the better team to win. Only 20% likely to win it all, though.
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