What an NIT Championship last night. NIT Stu has more on that, although we’ll hit it a little in the third thought today.
1. What kind of whistle will Duke get?
I have a gut suspicion that Houston will be called for a lot of fouls tomorrow and Duke will not be. This is mathematically likely—Houston fouls more than Duke—so I guess what I really mean is that I’m suspicious the whistle will favor Duke. Is this reasonable?
I’m not sure, to be honest. There’s an angle where Houston can shift the window of what contact is acceptable. That’s something Houston and teams like Houston have done plenty of times. Refs also tend to try to keep foul counts somewhat even, or so it often seems. Maybe the physicality will work in Houston’s favor. It’s not like Duke is entirely not physical. They’re one of the best defensive teams in the country, and you don’t get there by playing soft. But Houston is a different beast than Duke. This might be the biggest matchup to watch in either of tomorrow’s games.
2. First-year transfers and the NCAA Tournament
I think that no team has won an NCAA Tournament yet with more than one first-year transfer in the starting lineup. This is a weak statement, but we found it interesting last year, and we’re tracking it again. On these teams, only Florida has more than one first-year transfer starting, and one of their two—Rueben Chinyelu—isn’t one of their top-five minutes guys.
If this is a real trend and a meaningful one (again, weak statement—might not be real, might not be meaningful), it would imply something about how to build a champion right now. You need some core. It takes a couple years to develop it. Outrageously good freshmen might be easier to mix in than transfers.
Sorry for not fleshing this out further before blogging it. Discuss amongst yourselves.
3. Can Chattanooga keep its guys together?
Chattanooga’s graduating a lot of guys. Among those who aren’t graduating, a few earned themselves a lot more notoriety these last three weeks. They’re going to be offered money Chattanooga can’t pay them. It’s going to be a tough decision. Our dream, here at The Barking Crow, would be that Mocs boosters pull enough money together that they can match the offers coming in, and that if the players in question sign with agents, they sign with conscientious ones. Only one half of that dream is probably realistic.
Something to watch. Sad thing, but it’s a good problem to have.
