I, like a lot of sports fans, do not follow the NBA much during the regular season. I, like a lot of sports fans, eagerly pick things up in the playoffs without a hitch.
1. The NBA regular season has issues. But it can make the playoffs better.
Maybe this year isn’t the best time to make this point. Almost half the first-round series are going to be foregone conclusions. But with the Warriors set to open against the Rockets, which is a perfect test of experience vs. winning (a simmering NBA playoff analysis debate worth turning full boil), it’s worth appreciating what the NBA regular season doesn’t do: It doesn’t cut down any potential contenders, and its randomness allows for competitive series the whole postseason. When the second-best team in a conference can easily get the 4-seed (or the 7-seed), you’re going to have better conference semifinals (or a better first round). Make teams too orderly 1 through 8, and it’s going to take the postseason too long to heat up.
It’s ridiculous that the Bulls are playing postseason basketball, whether you call the Play-In Tournament the playoffs or not. It’s even more ridiculous that the NBA occasionally gets actively tanking teams in the postseason mix. (See: 2023 Mavericks.) But these playoffs are better for having the Warriors in them, and without the playoffs being the size they are, the Warriors would have had little incentive to go for it, attempting an audacious Jimmy Butler trade that worked out beyond Golden State’s wildest dreams. Add in that they’re now playing the Rockets, one of three absolute bangers of first round series in the Western Conference, and it’s easy to see what the NBA likes about what it has.
Would we take the NBA more seriously if the regular season counted more? Yes. But when the playoffs are this good, in a world where it’s hard for sports besides football to grab the spotlight, there’s something to be said for going all-in on the playoff product. I don’t think this was the original intent, but now that they’re in this place, change might not be as necessary as it sometimes feels.
2. When will the Bulls escape no-man’s land?
There’s a grim answer to this, and we’ll address it, but I need to acknowledge up front that it’s grim.
If you were setting the over/under on how many years it’ll be before the Bulls make the Finals, what would you say?
Three possible takes:
- It’s likely enough that the Eastern Conference falls off and the Giddey/White backcourt core develops to set the number at four or five years. There’s a long tail at the end of that, but maybe we reach 50% on the probability distribution kind of soon. The Eastern Conference falling off is a significant part of this—it’d have to be the kind of year where the Western Conference champ sweeps the Finals—but it’s possible.
- The likeliest path is a combination of a front office overhaul and a strong free agent class syncing up. It’d have to be a lucky hire, both in that the leadership in question would need to be really good (unlikely when Jerry Reinsdorf’s franchise is doing the hiring) and willing to tolerate/deflect Reinsdorfian guidelines (unlikely when Jerry Reinsdorf’s franchise is doing the hiring), but it’s possible. I do think a free agent haul is the best medium-term hope for the Bulls right now. Land a star, get lucky on a role player who becomes your third-best player, combine that with some lucky development. That would also mesh better with Reinsdorf’s M.O. than a full rebuild. We’re not getting the rebuild. If we didn’t get it this year, it’s never coming. This might put the Scenario 2 over/under sooner than Scenario 1, actually? It might take Giddey and White longer alone?
- The answer depends on when Jerry Reinsdorf dies.
I don’t like Scenario 3 for a few reasons—first, we’re not wishing death on Jerry Reinsdorf; second, Michael Reinsdorf currently runs the Bulls—but I sympathize with that instinct. It was my first thought as well. Realistically, I think the answer is 15 or 20 years. Development and free agency are both paths this franchise hasn’t gotten to work in the current NBA era. The Bulls need change, not luck. Luck isn’t going to be big enough.
3. Is Braden Smith returning a surprise?
Obviously, it’s a big deal, but Braden Smith returning to Purdue feels a little like the Dodgers beating the Pirates to clinch the NL West in mid-September. It’s important, but there’s no drama.
Unless there was really a risk of Smith going pro?
Maybe I missed a lot on this story, but it seems to me that Purdue put out a lot of press celebrating Smith’s return (as they should) and that college basketball media and fans took it to mean there was uncertainty here. Really, the takeaway should be that a lot of people now default to the assumption that any good player will find a new team every offseason? That seems overblown.
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