Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,293 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College football; college basketball; NFL; NFL futures. We’re taking the day off college football futures again due to there not being anything all that new in the markets. Here’s the context on each area we are playing.
Single-day college football bets: On the season, we’re 84–89–3. We’re down 2.61 units on the year, but we’re up 6.43 units on FBS bowls so far.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 24–28. We’re down 5.58 units, and we’re 4–15 over our last 19 plays. We are, however, 3–1 over our last four.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 19–28–8, and we’re down 11.02 units. We’re 2–1 over our last three, but that’s starting to stretch it on these positive spins.
NFL futures: We began the season with 150 units in our NFL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 100 of those over the season’s eighteen weeks and keep 50 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FPI to make the picks, but FPI’s probabilities show us with an expected return on the 150 units of 16.80 units, or 5.6%.
Bowl Games
We’re sticking with the moneyline underdogs, although we’re a little worried that works better with the Group of Five than with the Power Five, given what we’ve seen the last two days. It only takes one or two.
Pick: Boston College to win +430. Low confidence.
Pick: Miami to win +120. Low confidence.
Pick: NC State to win +138. Low confidence.
Pick: Oklahoma to win +110. Low confidence.
USC @ Oregon
We like the Oregon moneyline more here, but we’re taking a little shot because we don’t have a natural moneyline parlay for tonight’s Pac-12 games. If we liked UCLA more, we’d parlay that moneyline with this one. Instead, it’s Oregon to cover the points.
What we like about Oregon is that USC had its “get right” game in the Pac-12/SWAC challenge and probably didn’t actually get right. Oregon hasn’t been awesome, but they’ve been the better team, they’re playing at home, and no, I don’t think Bronny James fundamentally changes how good the Trojans are.
Pick: Oregon –2.5 (–115). Low confidence.
UCLA @ Oregon State
Remember the concerns about Mick Cronin going to UCLA? As I recall them, they centered around what a weird fit his personality is for Los Angeles.
To make a long point short, I’m wondering what happens if UCLA loses both these games on their Oregon road trip. They’d be 5–8. They wouldn’t have won a game in over a month. Maybe Cronin’s approach worked when he had Jaime Jaquez and that sort of player to answer the call, but I don’t know that UCLA has that flavor anymore. This might not be a team that plays better when yelled at. This is a longshot, but it wouldn’t be shocking if the Beavers started Pac-12 play 1–0.
Pick: Oregon State to win +230. Low confidence.
NY Jets @ Cleveland
I know the Jets might be the ones to figure out the Flacco offense, but the Browns have been scoring too many points for the total to be this low. This is an extremely low total.
Pick: Over 34 (–110). Low confidence.
NFL Playoffs
If the Raiders beat the Colts this week, they get a home game against the Broncos in which they can get to 9–8. The chances of the Steelers and Bengals losing out are decent enough, which means 9–8 would just pit Las Vegas against maybe the Texans.
Pick: Las Vegas to make playoffs +750. Low confidence.
NFC East
We’re really low on the Eagles in our portfolio, and we’re high on the Cowboys, so when we see value here, we take it.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –450. Low confidence. x2
AFC South
We continue to like the Jags to win the South relative to where the market has them. Their last two weeks are great. We’re still fine if the Texans end up winning it, but this does dig a bigger hole for us with the Colts. That’s the danger right now.
Pick: Jacksonville to win –130. Low confidence. x2
AFC
Finally, one more unit on the Ravens. Even at these short odds. The bye is a great deal for them.
Pick: Baltimore to win +150. Low confidence.
