Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 481 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 3% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But instead it’s coming, on average, on each of these picks.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Sacred Heart @ Maine
Maine surprised last year, upsetting New Hampshire at home out of the gate, beating FBS-level Western Kentucky in the season’s second week, and playing their way to a stunning CAA Championship before making their first-ever national semifinal appearance.
Their head coach, Joe Harasymiak, left to become a defensive assistant under P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Formerly the youngest head coach in Division I, Harasymiak leaves that title (beyond just the title of head coach) to Nick Charlton, a 30-year-old who was formerly the Black Bears’ offensive coordinator.
Defense was Maine’s strength last year, but Chris Ferguson isn’t a bad quarterback, and the addition of graduate transfer Emmanuel Reed (from Buffalo) at running back should help the offense. In its first year with a target on its back, Maine’s as well-equipped as it could reasonably hope to be.
Pick: Maine -14.5 (-110). Low confidence.
MLB
Chicago (AL) @ Atlanta
While Mike Soroka grabs our attention (that’s a very specific “our,” mostly meaning me) in the Braves’ rotation, his sidekick, Max Fried, is having an impressive season of his own. Fried, a first-round pick back in 2012 with the Padres, first debuted in 2017, but hasn’t been a full-time major leaguer until this year.
Fried’s 4.03 ERA and 3.79 FIP aren’t spectacular, but they’re good, and they’re especially valuable within a Braves pitching staff that was hoping for more out of Dallas Keuchel than it’s gotten.
Pick: Atlanta to win (-210). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Trevor Bauer’s had a few rough goes of it since coming over from the American League. He allowed nine runs to Washington two weeks ago, then allowed eight to the Pirates last weekend.
It isn’t much to be concerned about for Reds fans, though. Beyond just being a small sample, Bauer’s struggles also seem to have a lot to do with his LOB rate, which is only 52.1% since joining Cincinnati, and his BABIP, which sits at .375 in the National League. His FIP is 4.25 over his five Cincinnati starts, not far off the 4.17 it’s been over the season-to-date.
Pick: Cincinnati to win (+120). Low confidence.
Boston @ Anaheim
There are a lot of things in which Red Sox fans should be disappointed this season, but one particular gut punch is the payoff so far from the front office’s bet on Nathan Eovaldi.
An October hero last year, Eovaldi earned himself a four-year, $68M deal this offseason. He’s proceeded to miss three months with injury and pitch quite poorly when healthy, to the tune of a 6.64 ERA upon a 5.86 FIP.
He hasn’t quite hit 40 innings yet, so Eovaldi’s got time, but with the season a month from its conclusion, Boston will likely soon be relying on a much better next three years to make the righty’s contract worth its while.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-105). Low confidence.
