ESPN’s Tournament Challenge now includes a feature which tells you how likely you are to win each group you’re in. We don’t have that at the 2025 NIT Bracket Challenge. We do, however, now have a tab on our master spreadsheet which tells you the likelihood of each of the 128 remaining possible scenarios. The leader? UC Irvine over Oklahoma State in one semifinal; Bradley over Loyola in the other; UC Irvine over Bradley in the championship. That’s the likeliest. It’s only 3.3% likely. This thing is wide open, and that’s before considering any supernatural effects Hinkle Fieldhouse might impose on next week’s games.
We aren’t going to tell you who finishes first, second, and third in each scenario. We trust, though, that one of you cares enough and has enough free time at your job this afternoon to go into that master spreadsheet and figure it out yourself. We’ve given you the data. We know one of you is out there to use it. Whether you share your findings or not is up to you.
Enjoy the games tonight. Stu’s got a quarterfinal preview up, and he’ll have updated bracket standings after tonight’s games.
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